Trading is one of those things where timing is everything. Trading is one
of those things where hindsight can consume you. Trading with a system helps
out with both of those factors because if you follow the system, it takes care
of the timing and the emotion (which creates hindsight).
Most of the time, my system will take the emotion out of trading, but you
don't have to follow what I say. My weightings below are stated as what they
are - suggestions - and that is all. I'm not telling you what to do. It is
just my interpretation of my indicators.
On that note, if you feel you want to have more of your weighting in bullish
or bearish leverage - or out of the market in cash - feel free to do so. I
won't take offense to it.
Where does that leave us now? We are positioned to the bullish side, so we
are still profiting from the latest move higher. Emotionally speaking, I am
not sure if I would put more weighting in the market since we've had such a
large rally. Good thing we have indicators to take the emotion out of it. A
second of my indicators has been shifted to the bullish side, and like good
system followers, we'll add more bullish weighting to our position.
I feel there is still room for the market to advance, gaining even more ground
on what was lost toward the end of 2008.
Add 1/3 Bullish position (see new weighting below).
Current Weighting Suggestion:
2/3 in Bullish Leverage
1/3 in CASH mode
Long Term Investor Buy Signal Alert
Over the past several years, this indicator has predicted several 100-point
or more moves in the S&P. There are only 2 to 3 of these signals every
year, so they're worth paying attention to. This is an ideal signal for investors
to put cash to work following a down move in the market.
A Long Term Investor Buy Signal Alert was issued March 18, 2009. Over the
past 4 months, the SPX has moved up almost 210 points.
Past Long Term Investor Buy Signals
October 29, 2008 - resulted in an advance of 76 points over 4 days.
July 23, 2008 - resulted in an advance of 34 points over 3 weeks.
Long Term Investor Crash Warning Indicator
This indicator is a variation of the widely published Hindenburg Omen.
We'll let you know when we're seeing indications of a potential crash to
come. This would be a good time for long term investors to take some money
off the table.
This indicator is not coming into play at this point in time.
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