Combining BoomBustBlog Forensic Research with Volatility Strategies
Note: The Goldman Sachs direction neutral strategy empirical analysist is now available to Pro subscribers. Click Goldman Sachs Option Strategy Pro Analysis 2009-08-05 09:52:44 1.02 Mb to access or proceed to the downloads section.
We have started with analyzing market neutral option strategies during the bull run of 2Q09. Also we have started with analyzing most optimal OTM Strangle strategies for the S&P and the companies we have covered over the last year. Below is a list of 12 companies for the purpose of analysis based on following criteria.
a) More than 50% price change over the past one month / three month / six month and
b) More than 5% deviation from consensus mean
b) More than 25% deviation from consensus mean
Based on the criterion above we have selected the list of 12 companies below. Before getting to the list, I want to make clear how absurd this rally has been. Notice the columns in the list and who has made the list... The worst performers with the worst prospects have been propelled the farthest, while the best performers with the brightest prospects have remained relatively static. I aim to mitigate the risk of prospecting for a correction with the direction neutral strategies described in my previous post.
Please keep in mind that the consensus estimates outlined here have been lowballed, and reduced significantly according to managment guidance. You all should know the Wall Street game by now. It goes a little something like this: "Company X's earnings fell 80%, with a 95% drop in revenues, as auditors doubt the ability to continue as a going cocern. Management hires prominent law firm Getcha, Gotcha, Wily and Lipton to advise on potenial bankruptcy filings, but stock pops and rallies in after hours trading on better than anticipated results!" This would be funny, except for the fact that even with significantly lowered guidance and consequent consensus estimates, companies are still missing, and missing by a lot. Notice how that does not stop them from rallying though. For those who subscribe to my research, you know what the real numbers should look like, without the politics, drama, conflicts of interest and bullshit that abounds!
|MAC||20.0||69.1||29%||5.3||378%||17.9%||7.4%||48.5%||-62.1%||-7.1%||18.6||Missed consensus, rallies 50%|
|STI||19.9||64.0||31%||6.0||331%||23.2%||15.1%||99.4%||-53.6%||-11.2%||17.7||Missed consensus, rallies 100%|
|JPM||39.6||50.6||78%||15.0||265%||22.7%||10.6%||64.7%||-1.3%||8.8%||43.1||Beats consensus (w. tricks) rallies 65%|
|USG||14.8||35.0||42%||4.2||356%||50.3%||-11.0%||133.1%||-44.2%||-34.7%||9.7||Totally misses consensus, rallies 133%|
|SFD||13.1||26.7||49%||5.4||243%||-4.2%||33.0%||15.2%||-41.1%||-16.2%||11.0||Misses consensus, up 33% last quarter|
|AXP||28.7||41.8||69%||9.7||295%||28.6%||5.0%||75.1%||-22.3%||-8.8%||26.1||Misses consensus, nearly doubles|
|HOT||24.9||42.3||59%||9.0||277%||19.0%||19.7%||68.7%||-28.7%||-5.7%||23.5||Misses consensus, up nearly 70%|
|GS||164.1||183.2||90%||47.4||346%||14.4%||22.3%||86.5%||-7.7%||6.5%||174.8||Barely beats, takes 2x the risk, while on welfare, nobody notices?|
|LRN||18.7||29.5||63%||12.0||156%||-4.8%||12.0%||16.7%||-25.8%||34.5%||25.1||Biggest beat here, best prospects, stock barely moves|
|BBV||16.8||18.2||92%||5.6||301%||37.7%||48.1%||81.6%||-3.0%||-12.1%||14.8||miss but almost doubles|
|CAT||45.1||72.1||63%||21.7||208%||42.2%||17.3%||47.5%||-33.1%||-13.4%||39.1||miss, up 50%|
We target to complete the strategy analysis of these companies by the end of the week based upon the relevant free and proprietary BoomBustBlog Subscriber research below. The Goldman Sachs direction neutral strategy empirical analysist is now available to Pro subscribers. Click Goldman Sachs Option Strategy Pro Analysis 2009-08-05 09:52:44 1.02 Mb to access or proceed to the downloads section.
Below is a complete listing of the fundamental research that we are using to compile the direction neutral strategy analysis for the tickers listed above. Some of it is free for non-subscribers. I would recommend that pro subscribers reread the documents to brush up on my take on the companies listed herein.
Goldman Sachs Stress Test Professional 2009-04-20 10:06:45 4.04 Mb - 131 pages
Goldman Sachs Stress Test Retail 2009-04-20 10:08:06 720.25 Kb - 17 pages
Free research and opinion
- Reggie Middleton on Goldman Sachs' fourth quarter, 2008 results
- Goldman and Morgan losses in the news, about 11 months late
- Blog vs. Broker, whom do you trust!
- Monkey business on Goldman Superheroes
- Reggie Middleton asks, "Do you guys know who you're messin' with?"
- Reggie Middleton on Risk, Reward and Reputations on the Street: the Goldman Sachs Forensic Analysis
- Reggie Middleton on Goldman Sachs Q3 2008
- As Reality hits, the Masters of the Universe are starting to look like regular bank employees
[Note: we have never performed a full forensic analysis of JPM, although there may be one coming]