Gold in Not Dollars

By: Adrian Ash | Fri, Nov 13, 2009
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Non-US investors haven't enjoyed the same stock rally as Wall Street. Whereas in gold...

"THE DOLLAR is still driving gold," agree the analysts, pundits and chart-watchers now scratching their heads about where gold is headed next.

That's kind of true, but not entirely. Yes, the Dollar's fall against gold since the start of this decade has been greater than the drop suffered to date by the rest of the world's currencies.

But the last 20% move in Dollar gold prices, for instance - starting from the mid-July low - has been outpaced by gold adjusted for the greenback's fluctuating currency value, as measured by the US Dollar Index.

Priced in these "Not Dollars", gold has risen 26% since midsummer, as this chart (gold for the Dollar price, blue for the adjusted value, and both starting from Jan. 2000 values) shows.

The reverse is true of the US stock market's big surge, however, because it started when the Dollar was stronger and set to weaken - rather than the tepid rally it's put in so far this fall.

Priced in Not Dollars, the S&P has risen by a lower percentage from the March bottom - up 39% - than its USD value.

In fact, almost one-quarter of the S&P's bounce to date could, if you so wished, be attributed to the weaker Dollar. Non-US investors have failed to enjoy the same rally as Wall Street. Whereas in gold, since it turned sharply higher, they've outperformed - on average - to date.

Just a thought.

 


 

Adrian Ash

Author: Adrian Ash

Adrian Ash
BullionVault.com

Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and head of editorial at the UK's leading financial advisory for private investors, Adrian Ash is the head of research at BullionVault, where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

About BullionVault

BullionVault is the secure, low-cost gold and silver exchange for private investors. It enables you to buy and sell professional-grade bullion at live prices online, storing your physical property in market-accredited, non-bank vaults in London, New York and Zurich.

By February 2011, less than six years after launch, more than 21,000 people from 97 countries used BullionVault, owning well over 21 tonnes of physical gold (US$940m) and 140 tonnes of physical silver (US$129m) as their outright property. There is no minimum investment and users can deal as little as one gram at a time. Each user's unique holding is proven, each day, by the public reconciliation of client property with formal bullion-market bar lists.

BullionVault is a full member of professional trade body the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). Its innovative online platform was recognized in 2009 by the UK's prestigious Queen's Awards for Enterprise. In June 2010, the gold industry's key market-development body the World Gold Council (www.gold.org) joined with the internet and technology fund Augmentum Capital, which is backed by the London listed Rothschild Investment Trust (RIT Capital Partners), in making an $18.8 million (£12.5m) investment in the business.

For more information, visit http://www.bullionvault.com

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