Reversal Bottom Sets Up Potential Dollar Rally

By: Brewer Futures Group | Wed, Jan 6, 2010
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The U.S. Dollar was able to mount a comeback after early session weakness. A lower than expected U.S. pending home sales report helped raise fears that the Fed would once again leave interest rates at historically low levels and fueled increased demand for the Dollar as a safe-haven investment. Oversold conditions also contributed to today's rally. Today's closing price reversal bottom indicates the start of a 2 - 3 day rally to 77.77 - 77.93.

The USD JPY fell sharply this morning following the release of the weaker housing report which showed the number of contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes fell in November more than analysts had estimated. Today's close has this market in a position breakout to the bear side of an uptrending Gann angle at .9103. This would signal the start of a possible retracement to .8902.

The EUR USD weakened into the close as the Dollar picked up strength. The bigger picture suggests a move to 1.4680 is likely. Minor resistance at 1.4503 could slow down the current upside momentum. The weakening Euro is setting up for a pull-back to 1.4350 - 1.4319.

The main trend remains down in the GBP USD. Buyers tried, but failed to hold the British Pound in the retracement zone at 1.6036 to 1.5988. Concerns about the U.K. economy and the upcoming election are putting pressure on the Cable.

The USD CHF showed weakness overnight, but New York session buying helped form a closing price reversal bottom after an eleven day break. Based on the short-term range, watch for a retracement to .1.0379 to 1.0409. The bigger picture suggests that a break to 1.0212 - 1.0143 is possible following this short-term correction.

Rising gold and crude oil prices as well as a firm equity market helped to weaken the USD CAD. The main trend is down with 1.0265 the next downside objective. A key retracement level at 1.0459 is the new resistance. The weak close suggests that a possible rally to 1.0550 is in the works.

Strong demand for higher yields helped rally the AUD USD overnight. This morning's strength helped drive the Aussie over a key retracement zone at .9144 to .9066. The intra-day strength in the Dollar brought the Aussie back inside of this range and helped form a closing price reversal top. Traders should watch for the start of a 2 to 3 day break with a retracement to .8953 - .8902 likely.

The NZD USD is now in an uptrend, but finding resistance at a pair of down trending angles at .7353 and .7375. Closing back below these angles will indicate a profit-taking break is imminent. This could set up a substantial correction to .7180 - .7131.

 


 

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