As I have stated all along, my research suggests to me that the rally out of the March 2009 low has been a bear market rally. Nothing has occurred to change that point of view. As a result of the weakness that began a few weeks ago, I have received a number of e-mails asking about manipulation. Over the years I've noticed that every time the market makes a break, questions about manipulation and the ability of the powers that be to hold the markets up seem to surface. It is for this reason that I want to address the subject of manipulation in this article.
All throughout the period between 2003 and 2007 I explained that we were seeing a stretched 4-year cycle. I also explained that the efforts by the powers that be to hold things together would ultimately only serve to make matters worse. There is no doubt that the manipulative efforts seen during this period contributed in a very negative way to the credit and banking crisis. In my eyes, this was largely accomplished through the unscrupulous lending practices and the financially irresponsible, resulting in the housing bubble in which Greenspan tried to tell us did not exist. Well, we have all seen those chickens come home to roost and it hasn't been pretty.
In October 2007 the equity markets peaked and my subscribers were informed of that fact, prepared and knew exactly what was occurring. As the decline took root the manipulative efforts became more drastic. But, from my seat, none of this mattered as the market continued lower until the cyclical events required to make the 4-year cycle low and the Phase I low were achieved. It was from that point that this bear market rally began. In the eyes of most people and the politicians, they believe that they have "saved" the market and that the economy has bottomed. This is not so. The market and the economy merely reached a temporary bottom in March 2009, in which the rally that should ultimately prove to separate Phase I from Phase II of the bear market began. This rally has served to give the public a false sense of security and hope that the economy is now on the road to recovery. This rally has also given the powers that be a false sense of power in that they think they have every thing under control as a result of their manipulative efforts. This is not the case and once the bear returns, this will become obvious. Unfortunately, in the meantime, the hope and hype of Wall street and Washington keeps the public blindly optimistic.
I have gone back to 1896 and have identified a very specific cyclical "DNA Marker" that has occurred at every major market top. If I'm right about this being a bear market rally, this DNA Marker will appear in accordance with very specific statistics, which will set the stage for the suspected Phase II decline in this ongoing secular bear market to begin. These details are being covered in my monthly research letters. Once this DNA Marker is in place it won't matter what the powers that be do or say because the bear will have his way. The bailouts were a waste of money and were only associated with a temporary low. The powers that be cannot manipulate the entire world out of the natural forces and cyclical events that have to play out. Their efforts only serve to make matters worse and to postpone the inevitable. Again, the most recent example of this occurred during the efforts to keep things going between 2003 and 2007. Were things not worse in 2008 and early 2009 than they were in 2001 and 2002? Yes, they were. Were the efforts in 2008 and early 2009 more extreme than they were in the 2003 to 2007 period? Yes, they were and I look for the fall out from those extreme efforts to be worse than the fallout of the 2003 to 2007 efforts. In other words, once the Phase II decline begins, it will be worse than the Phase I decline into 2009. You have been warned!
The following text on Manipulation was taken from Robert Rhea's book, The Dow Theory.
"Manipulation is possible in the day to day movement of the averages, and secondary reactions are subject to such an influence to a more limited degree, but, the primary trend can never be manipulated.
Hamilton frequently discussed the subject of stock market manipulation. There are many who will disagree with his belief that manipulation is a negligible factor in primary movements, but it should always be remembered that he had, as a background for his opinions, a most intimate acquaintance with the veterans of Wall Street, and the advantage of having spent his life in accumulating facts pertaining to financial matters.
The following comment, taken at random from his many editorials, affords convincing proof that his views on the subject of manipulation did not vary:
'A limited number of stocks may be manipulated at one time, and may give an entirely false view of the situation. It is impossible, however, to manipulate the whole list so that the average price of 20 active stocks will show changes sufficiently important to draw market deductions from them.' (Nov. 29, 1908)
'Anybody will admit that while manipulation is possible in the day-to-day market movement, and the short swing is subject to such an influence in a more limited degree, the great market movement must be beyond the manipulation of the combined financial interests of the world.' (Feb.26, 1909)
'...the market itself is bigger than all the 'pools' and 'insiders' put together.' (May 8, 1922)
'One of the greatest of misconceptions, that which has militated most against the usefulness of the stock market barometer, is the belief that manipulation can falsify stock market movements otherwise authoritative and instructive. The writer claims no more authority than may come from twenty-two years of stark intimacy with Wall Street, preceded by practical acquaintance with the London Stock Exchange, the Paris Bourse and even that wildly speculative market in gold shares, 'Between the Chains,' in Johannesburg in 1895. But in all that experience, for what it may be worth, it is impossible to recall a single instance of a major market movement which depended for its impetus, or even for its genesis, upon manipulation. These discussions have been made in vain if they have failed to show that all the primary bull markets and every primary bear market have been vindicated, in the course of their development and before their close, by the facts of general business, however much over-speculations or over-liquidation may have tended to excess, as they always do, in the last stage of the primary swing.' (The Stock Market Barometer) '...no power, not the U. S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve System combined, could usefully manipulate forty active stocks or deflect their record to any but a negligible extent.' (April 27, 1923)
'The average amateur trader believes the stock market is guided in its trends by a certain mysterious 'power,' this belief being the one factor, next to impatience, most responsible for his losses. He reads tipster sheets avidly; he scans the newspapers industriously for news likely, in his opinion, to change the trend of the market. He does not seem to realize that by the time the news of real importance is printed, its effect, so far as the basic trend of the market is concerned, has long ago been discounted.'
'It is true that a flurry in the price of wheat or cotton may influence the day to day movement of stock prices. Moreover, sometimes newspaper headlines contain news which is construed as bullish or bearish by market dabblers, who collectively rush in to buy or sell, thus influencing or 'manipulating' the market for a short period. The professional speculator is always ready to help the movement along by 'placing his line' while the little fellow timidly 'lays out' a few shares; then, when the little fellow decides to increase his commitments, the professional begins to unload and the reaction ends, and the primary movement is again resumed. It is doubtful if many of these reactions would ever be caused by newspaper headlines alone unless the market was either overbought or oversold at the time---the 'technical situation' so dear to the hearts of financial news reporters.'
'Those who believe the primary trend can be manipulated could, no doubt, study the subject for a few days and be convinced that such a thing is impossible. For instance, on September 1, 1929, the total market value of all stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange was reported to have amounted to more than $89,000,000,000. Imagine the money which would have been involved in depressing such a mass of values even 10 per cent!'
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