Market Update

By: J.D. Rosendahl | Thu, Mar 18, 2010
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Below is a daily chart of the SP500 over the past three months. From the prior high, the market made a 3 Black Crow's pattern suggesting lower prices, which ended in early February with a Dragon Fly Doji suggesting a bounce was due. Then on wave 2 and ii, the market made bullish candlesticks. From there, the market made an Inverse Head and Shoulder's pattern with the right shoulder completing at wave ii with a target of roughly 1160-70, which was satisfied today.

S&P 500 3-month chart

My personal expectation is that the markets grind higher into the back half of March or into April. The blue circles represent what might be the most powerful (wave 3) part of this leg higher. Then we should expect smaller moves to exhaust the entire move up.

In that view, I've provided the corresponding potential Elliott Wave structure. The market has or will in the next couple days finish wave iii of 3. Then we should expect a wave iv correction, then wave v of 3, then wave 4, and the final wave 5.

The labeling and gap structure combined with the current channel is quite common behavior. And the remaining waves to come would provide the market time to finish the move by exhausting itself and fill into the end of March or April timeframes.

All worth watching closely.

Hope all is well.



Author: J.D. Rosendahl

J.D. Rosendahl

J.D. Rosendahl is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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