Complacency? Never

By: Guy Lerner | Thu, Mar 18, 2010
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A quick look around the web reveals that type of impenetrable bullishness where it is clears skies and happy days as far as the eye can see. Gosh, I only wish it was so easy.

From this morning's MarketWatch we have this headline:

Coast is clear for the bulls - NOT!

And yesterday's edition had my favorite "R" word:

Street's showing resiliency - NOT!

It is all good until it isn't. On January 17, 2010 I wrote the following:

"There are two kinds of bulls: 1) there are those bulls who are intent on squeezing every last percentage point from this rally and who believe they can find the exits when the music finally stops; and 2) then there are those bulls who continue to have high expectations that the current market environment will yield strong returns. The latter type of bulls are unlikely to realize strong gains without a significant pullback, and by significant I mean that the pullback should get investors to think that the market is rolling over to such a degree that the current cyclical highs will never be revisited. The former type of bulls are likely overestimating their ability to get to the exits or identify the top before the next trader. Either way, complacency reigns as they don't ring a bell at the top."

I am still don't see why this time will be different. This is not a warning, but an observation.



Guy Lerner

Author: Guy Lerner

Guy M. Lerner

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