Conflicting Patterns on Gold

By: J.D. Rosendahl | Fri, Mar 19, 2010
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A couple days ago I wrote a blog, that GLD was developing an inverse head and shoulder's pattern, and pending confirmation by a breakout.

Possible right shoulder on GLD SPDR Gold Trust Shares

With today's move down in GLD, it has created a counter head and shoulders pattern. See the daily chart below.

Minimum downside target GLD SPDR Gold Trust Shares

Both patterns are still viable. On the bearish view of the new head and shoulder's pattern, there are two likely out comes. The first is a grinding lower into a slightly lower right shoulder, which is highlighted in the first chart above, and also discussed in my prior blog as a possibility. This would create a false break out to the down side of the bearish head and shoulder's pattern and not satisfy the down side target followed by a reversal.

The more bearish view is GLD will continue it's correction from the early January top. In such cases as this, I often turn to the next time frame when patterns conflict to see what that suggests. Below is the weekly chart of GLD.

GLD SPDR Gold Trust Shares 3-year chart

The weekly chart reflects a small bearish divergence on the MACD. GLD tried to turn up the MACD during the past 5 weeks but failed. If it can't then we should expect more corrective behavior in both price and time that could last several weeks.

Since the GLD is stuck in between patterns with no confirmation of either pattern, which should resolve itself in the next couple weeks, there is not a low risk entry for trading GLD, and prudence requires waiting.

Hope all is well



Author: J.D. Rosendahl

J.D. Rosendahl

J.D. Rosendahl is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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