Looks Like a Break Out
In a blog on Feb 10, 2010 I suggested the yield on the US Treasury's ten year note was building a cup and handle pattern pointing to higher yields to come. I also suggested that the right side of the cup pattern might take more time to unfold.
Both of those views have remained since then. Today, we got what looks like a decisive break out of a consolidation pattern, classic form. It's also possible; the consolidation is the handle part of the pattern. The RSI has plenty of room to support high yields. And, the MACD is turning up from just below the zero line, also a bullish sign.
Given today's move, we should expect a move higher testing the prior peak at 4% during the next couple weeks. From there we could get another consolidation pattern, or a break above resistance, which would be very bullish on rates, and all worth keeping an eye on in the near future. The pattern still looks bullish for rates.
Hope all is well.