How BoomBustBlog Research Intersects with That of the IMF: Greece in the Spotlight

By: Reggie Middleton | Mon, Apr 5, 2010
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The IMF has recently released the results of their staff consultations with Greece. Some may find it interesting, particularly where it intersects with relevant BoomBustBlog research. Let's not mince words here. Greece is going to effectively default on its debt, one way or another, and it is probably going to do it relatively soon. Shall we walk through the IMF findings from LAST YEAR and how they are actually optimistic compared to the facts that my team and I have dug up?

IMF Consultation: Greece (2009)

Context:

Projections:

I have sourced the accuracy of both the IMF and the EU's forecasting in "Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse!. If your well being relies on this stuff, you would be well served to subscribe to our research services. Let's take a visual perusal of what I am talking about in regards to Grecian GDP, the IMF and the EU.

Greece Real GDP Growth - Actuals versus IMF Estimates

The EU/EC has proven to be no better, and if anything is arguably worse!

Greece Real GDP Growth - Actuals versus EU Estimates

Here are our considerably more realistic forecasts (premiums content: Greece Public Finances Projections).

Buyer Beware:

We have went through this in exquisite detail, both in the public sections of the blog and particularly in the subscriber-only content. See The Depression is Already Here for Some Members of Europe, and It Just Might Be Contagious!

Europe Map Showing Depression Areas
Larger Image

Professional and institutional subscribers should carefully reference "Banks Exposed to CEE & SEE" while all paying subscribers should review the "Greek Banking Industry Tear Sheet".

Bank Support Measures (as of May 2009):

Banking Stress Tests:

Strengthening the Fiscal Position:

Note from BoomBustBlog contributor: Economists and other market researchers have stated Greece's only hope lies in cutting expenditures and increased revenue accountability for years, and for years we have seen half assed "high-wage friendly" measures taken that support government workers. No one is willing to take a wage cut during a deflationary cycle, and that is merely one reason why a debt-deflation collapse of Greece is seemingly imminent.

More related editorial from Reggie Middleton:

Long-Term:

Competitiveness (or lack thereof):

Statistics:

Banking Sector:

Public Sector Balance Sheet:

 

Related Subscriber Content:
Banks Exposed to CEE & SEE (Professional and Institutional subscribers)
Greek Public Finance Projections
Greek Banking Industry Tear Sheet

For the complete Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis series, see:

1. The Coming Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis - introduces the crisis and identified it as a pan-European problem, not a localized one.
2. What Country is Next in the Coming Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis? - illustrates the potential for the domino effect
3. The Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis: If I Were to Short Any Country, What Country Would That Be.. - attempts to illustrate the highly interdependent weaknesses in Europe's sovereign nations can effect even the perceived "stronger" nations.
4. The Coming Pan-European Soverign Debt Crisis, Pt 4: The Spread to Western European Countries
5. The Depression is Already Here for Some Members of Europe, and It Just Might Be Contagious!
6. The Beginning of the Endgame is Coming???
7. I Think It's Confirmed, Greece Will Be the First Domino to Fall
8. Smoking Swap Guns Are Beginning to Litter EuroLand, Sovereign Debt Buyer Beware!
9. Financial Contagion vs. Economic Contagion: Does the Market Underestimate the Effects of the Latter?
10. "Greek Crisis Is Over, Region Safe", Prodi Says - I say Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire!
11. Germany Finally Comes Out and Says, "We're Not Touching Greece" - Well, Sort of...
12. The Greece and the Greek Banks Get the Word "First" Etched on the Side of Their Domino
13. As I Warned Earlier, Latvian Government Collapses Exacerbating Financial Crisis
14. Once You Catch a Few EU Countries "Stretching the Truth", Why Should You Trust the Rest?
15. Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse!
16. Ovebanked, Underfunded, and Overly Optimistic: The New Face of Sovereign Europe
17. Moody's Follows Suit Behind Our Analysis and Downgrades 4 Greek Banks

The EU Has Rescued Greece From the Bond Vigilantes,,, April Fools!!!

Premium Subscription research for the following sovereign states and their respective domiciled banks at risk are available for immediate download.

LATEST SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS SUBSCRIPTION CONTENT

 


 

Reggie Middleton

Author: Reggie Middleton

Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton, LLC
Perpetual Interests, LLCTM
http://boombustblog.com/

Reggie Middleton

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Well, I fancy myself the personification of the free thinking maverick, the ultimate non-conformist as it applies to investment and analysis. I am definitively outside the box - not your typical or stereotypical Wall Street investor. I work out of my home, not a Manhattan office. I build my own technology and perform my own research - in lieu of buying it or following the crowd. I create and follow my own macro strategies and am by definition, a contrarian to the nth degree.

Since I use my research as a tool for my own investing to actually put food on my table, I can stand behind it as doing what it is supposed too - educate, illustrate and elucidate. I do not sell advice, I am not a reporter hence do not sell stories, and I do not sell research. I am an entrepreneur who exists just outside of mainstream corporate America and Wall Street. This allows me freedom to do things that many can not. For instance, I pride myself on developing some of the highest quality research available, regardless of price. No conflicts of interest, no corporate politics, no special favors. Just the hard truth as I have found it - and believe me, my team and I do find it! I welcome any and all to peruse my blog, use my custom hacked collaborative social tools, read the articles, download the files, and make a critical comparison of the opinion referencing the situation at hand and the time stamp on the blog post to the reality both at the time of the post and the present. Hopefully, you will be as impressed with the Boom Bust as I am and our constituency.

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