Will It or Won't It?

By: J.D. Rosendahl | Tue, Apr 6, 2010
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Gold has traded back and forth, moving in a narrow range, bouncing from conflicting patterns. Below is the Daily chart of GLD. I wrote several days ago the notion of conflicting patterns. The first was a bearish head and shoulders top identified below. I also discussed one of the expected options was a false break down and then reversal, which so far has taken place.

SPDR Gold Trust Shares Showing March False Breakdown

I thought that might happen because by breaking down and reversing, GLD would finish building out a larger conflicting pattern of a bullish head and shoulders pattern identified below. GLD has moved back up and now testing its next line. Confirmation is a move above the neckline, which forecasts a target of $123, based on the pattern.

SPDR Gold Trust Shares Showing 123 Target

All that being said, GLD has yet to make up its mind, and will it or won't it break out. So, we also need to understand what the counter view is because we have a new conflicting pattern. Below, I've labeled what the bearish alternative is for the time being.

SPDE Gold Trust Shares with Elliott Wave Count

Will it or won't it? The bearish pattern above is a wedge pattern, and wave "e of B" could provide a little splash over and then reverse, and this is why a prudent trader would wait for a solid confirmation of a break out to the upside to confirm the bullish head and shoulders pattern. It's also common in this form of back and forth to continue to see conflicting patterns unfold, and its only price that eventually confirms which pattern is dominant.

Hope all is well.



Author: J.D. Rosendahl

J.D. Rosendahl

J.D. Rosendahl is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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