MortiES' Weekend Analysis
A little about myself. My name is John Trapp and I write for the "Value of Perfect Information" exclusively. Trading didn't look too difficult to me 22 years ago, so I began trading October 1987. After that experience and a break from trading, I tried again. This time I was going to be a Bear. Perfect for the 90's. So I didn't have a great start as a trader. I paid a lot for my trading education. I was thrilled when I could finally break even on a regular basis. Trading is an avocation for me - one that I take seriously, and one that I consider the most difficult endeavor I have ever undertaken. I have a lot going against me as a trader. I was a Marine officer in Vietnam and fought in the Ashau with a Battalion called "The Walking Dead" ~ and so, like most combat Marines, I'm too aggressive. I'm a Doctor (one of the Dental specialties) ~ and everyone knows they are the worse investors/businessmen. I am a perfectionist and hate to be wrong ~ so I have a tendency to want to fight the market. Overcoming these liabilities makes the prize more rewarding. I'm still a work in progress, but am making headway. I think I have a lot of good advice for new traders. If I would follow my own advice more consistently, I would be a far better trader also. This is the article and charts my premium subscribers received this weekend.
There are many indicators that will tell you that this market is extremely overbought, but ES continues to climb. I believe that we are still in a W3 of the move from early Feb. I thought that W3 was over when we had a big red candle last Wednesday, but after finishing off an impulsive move the next day, we ended up with a green candle and a rebound off the daily 15 EMA. Perma-Bears seem to be an extinct species now. That may be another sign that a top is approaching. But until we see that top, it is harmful to our trading account to fight this trend. I have a couple of charts that will give some perspective from a bird's-eye view. The targets that I've indicated on these charts are only possibilities, but they should keep us alert to the upside potential that the market has.
The first is a weekly chart. Look at that string of green bars the market has recently put together!
This next chart is a simple one that shows the substantial base that was formed IMO that supports the latest run from early February. If I have W1 and W2 labeled correctly, then the blue level is the typical/minimal W1 projection for a W3. This is a very Bullish structure IMO.