Gold Breaking Out Verses Euro, Relative Strength Chart Shows Trend Change

By: Jeb Handwerger | Thu, Aug 12, 2010
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The trade deficit widened unexpectedly this month after the dollar reached extremely oversold levels, which was quite surprising to Wall Street. Usually, a weaker dollar should lead to an increase of exports of U.S. goods; however, the exact opposite occurred. This further signifies the global economic slow down despite record government stimulus, a devalued dollar and artificially induced low interest rates. The market and the employment situation are no better off now than they were previously.

Despite Washington's attempts to prevent a depression through spending, investors are beginning to lose hope in what the Fed and Congress are doing to prevent a collapse of the markets into new lows. Yesterday, as predicted, the House created a $26 billion job bill that will supposedly prevent government layoffs and expand the job market for government workers. Washington is trying to alleviate high unemployment by creating more government jobs. That is not real job creation. Incidentally, the previous employment numbers were mildly inflated due to the recent influx of temporary Census workers and did not accurately reflect the true numbers of unemployed Americans.

Investors believe that sustainable job creation is through small business growth. The markets, as well as the American people are looking for leaders who will cut government spending and institute tax cuts for small business owners. Entrepreneurs who are trying to innovate and meet consumers' demands in a struggling economy should be supported with meaningful tax breaks. This spurs authentic growth and innovation. I expect the market and the American People to vote in candidates who are committed to these principles. The people are losing their faith in the current leadership, as evidenced by President Obama's approval ratings dropping to their lowest point in his entire tenure.

The Fed has committed to buying long term treasuries, which would artificially keep interest rates low. They are desperate to get capital flowing again, but it comes at a cost. Eventually, markets move back to their former equilibrium and long term trends. If you push down a spring as far as it goes, it eventually snaps back harder than before and reverberates. We may not see it for a while, but eventually long term treasuries will crash. Right now investors are flocking to treasuries for security and safety. However, just as the market is losing faith in the Fed's handle on the economic situation, bond holders will ultimately lose faith in government bonds. We may see a drop in treasury prices along with continued high interest rates over the next several years and possibly even decades as our children and grandchildren face the burden of credit downgrades.

My fear of a devalued currency and lack of confidence in Obama's handling of the economic situation are the reasons I am bullish on specific mining exploration stocks that are converting their strong cash positions into high grade copper, silver and gold resources. I have been following this sector for over nine years. I gather that during the next five to ten years, precious metals will see a lot of growth as investors seek hard money and hard assets.

Today's major collapse in the equity market was significant. Last week, I mentioned that the dollar was extremely oversold and that the Euro and U.S. equities were about to correct considerably. Today we are seeing the beginning of a new downwards trend in global equities and a flight to safety. Investors are worried that efforts from Washington will do nothing to prevent a slowing economy and a huge trade deficit.

Yesterday's weakness in gold was only relative to the dollar and U.S. treasuries. Compared with the Euro, there are technical signs of a major move upward in the price of gold. We could see a resumption of the market patterns that we saw in April and May when gold and the dollar rallied together as investors were seeking shelter from government defaults and sovereign debt crises. The relative strength trend of gold versus the Euro is an important indicator of the true price action of gold. Right now, it is showing signs of a bullish move higher after finding long-term support.

Although Gold was down slightly to the dollar it gapped up today versus the Euro after reaching an important 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement and Long Term Trend Support. MACD supports that Momentum has shifted. RSI Crossed 50 today also a bullish sign.

Disclosure: Long Gold and Silver Mining Stocks



Jeb Handwerger

Author: Jeb Handwerger

Jeb Handwerger

Jeb Handwerger

I started reading charts at eleven years old. One day my father, a market trader and technician found his library of books on technical analysis mysteriously disappearing. He later found the textbooks under my bed. For many years day and night I studied technical analysis and charting, working and learning from my father who has over 50 years of trading experience. Technical analysis is my passion and love.

In 2001, I started noticing the junior mining stocks and gold as having a tremendous upside. For the past 9 years I have researched many juniors and have identified the major winners using technical analysis and finding top management.

I earned a Bachelors Degree in Mathematics and a Masters Degree. I learned most of my technical analysis from the school of hard knocks, managing real money for myself and for my family.

Constantly perfecting my craft, I have traded for two decades of success in many different markets. I have been asked to post ideas to some of my students who have taken my course in charting and technical analysis. I have made an excellent living trading stocks for myself.

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