Death Cross Confirmed, Gold and Silver a Sure Bet During Crisis

By: Jeb Handwerger | Fri, Aug 13, 2010
Print Email

Several weeks ago I wrote about the death cross phenomenon. The death cross occurs when the 50 day moving average crosses the 200 day moving average on the downside. These patterns, when combined with other technical indicators can predict major market downturns. You may have read articles from the bullish camp and from many technicians contending that the death cross is not a proven or a contrary indicator. I however assert that this warning indicator prevented many wise investors who heeded its signal from losing their life savings in 2008.


The recent Post-Fed free fall is confirming the death cross as this will be the third major failure of the 200 day moving average. When a technician starts seeing bearish signs, it is important to look for subtle clues in chart patterns. In this case the clue was the bearish rising wedge: it is a rally that trades up on decreasing volume. This bearish rising wedge took place concurrently with the right shoulder formation of a head and shoulders pattern. This breakdown coupled with bearish price volume action confirms that selling pressure far exceeds buying. When all these signals happen at the same time, you can expect a rapid downturn to follow. This correction is putting pressure on the 200 day moving average slope. If that moving average begins to slope down, it becomes a heavy area of resistance and will confirm the death cross from early July. The odds of a long term downtrend are becoming highly probable. These signals could possibly indicate the start of a twelve to eighteen month down cycle.

Gold, on the other hand, has shown great relative strength despite the general markets correcting and negative sentiment about the economy from Washington. On July 28th, I wrote that gold was reaching major long term trend support and when everyone was selling, it was exactly the time to be buying. That day proved to be a pivot day for gold.

Gold is breaking out compared to the general markets and especially to the Euro. It has significantly rallied over the past couple of weeks and has broken above its 50 day moving average which showed little resistance. Now that 50 day has been broken to the upside, it should act as support as it builds a base to challenge new highs.

Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners/S&P500 SPDRS

Junior mining stocks that corrected significantly in the 2008 downturn have shown great relative strength during these past two weeks, demonstrating that this time will be different. July 28th was an inside bar day, or Harami pattern, which shows a loss of momentum of the previous downtrend and reversed higher. It is clear to see the uptrend and strength of junior miners during these past two weeks as the Fed has made it clear our economy is rapidly weakening. The Fed will continue to ease and print money which should be excellent for junior mining gold and silver stocks.

We may expect that during this crisis more people will become aware of the benefits some of these explorers can offer to shareholders during a currency devaluation. Some of these companies are significantly outperforming the bullion and investors should become aware of these strong junior miners. If you are interested in learning about some of the miners I have been following, please subscribe to my free newsletter at



Jeb Handwerger

Author: Jeb Handwerger

Jeb Handwerger

Jeb Handwerger

I started reading charts at eleven years old. One day my father, a market trader and technician found his library of books on technical analysis mysteriously disappearing. He later found the textbooks under my bed. For many years day and night I studied technical analysis and charting, working and learning from my father who has over 50 years of trading experience. Technical analysis is my passion and love.

In 2001, I started noticing the junior mining stocks and gold as having a tremendous upside. For the past 9 years I have researched many juniors and have identified the major winners using technical analysis and finding top management.

I earned a Bachelors Degree in Mathematics and a Masters Degree. I learned most of my technical analysis from the school of hard knocks, managing real money for myself and for my family.

Constantly perfecting my craft, I have traded for two decades of success in many different markets. I have been asked to post ideas to some of my students who have taken my course in charting and technical analysis. I have made an excellent living trading stocks for myself.

We are offering ideas for your consideration and education. We are not offering financial advice. None of our content is provided to invite or encourage any person to make any kind of investment decision. We are not financial advisors. We advise you to consult with a professional financial and investment advisor before relying on any content.

We are sharing our ideas for educational and informational purposes only. You must do your own due diligence and are responsible for your own investments.

Companies that are followed in our premium service may become sponsors on Gold Stock Trades and/or our free or affiliate websites to distribute press releases or corporate updates for a monthly fee on our free website. From time to time, Gold Stock Trades and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned and may make purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise. Please see our list of current sponsors and featured companies for any potential conflicts of interest.

Some information in our content can be construed as forward-looking statements. Forward looking statements are uncertain and actual results may differ from our expectations. We seek safe harbor.

By reading this disclaimer you will not hold responsible any person associated with responsible for any losses that may occur from trading based on this information. If you do not agree with the terms of our disclaimer, do not access our website or content, and unsubscribe if you are already a member.

Sign up for my free newsletter where I will post my "up to the minute" ideas and analysis of the markets. Comment and ask questions as we are all learning and growing. Empower yourself and learn how to anticipate opportunities.

All material on my newsletter and blog is copyrighted.

Please contact us here with any questions, comments or interviews.

Copyright © 2010-2016 Jeb Handwerger


All Images, XHTML Renderings, and Source Code Copyright ©