Last Monday, we posted the Banking Index chart and discussed its impending
breakout of a triangular pattern.
As you may recall, the implications were for a 10%+ down move if it broke
to the downside.
Well, it broke to the downside, but things are never really that simple
are they?
Just after the downside breakout, the Banking Index also had a historical
oversold pattern show up.
To see the oversold pattern, take notice the Ultimate Oscillator level that
I added to the chart. Now, I am not a huge fan of this oscillator, but it can
often help identify oversold bottoms quite nicely. For instance, look at labels
1, 2, and 3 where the indicator reached below 32 (it may be hard to see because
of the vertical lines).
Each occasion was a bottom for the Banking index and it moved
higher from there. I mention this because the Banking Index's Ultimate Oscillator
reached a level of 27.9 last Wednesday. If the pattern of the past three occurrences
holds, it would infer that the Banking Index has hit a short term bottom and
will move up. However, to replicate the previous patterns fully, it needs to
continue moving up to over 50 on the scale now.
Marty Chenard is an Advanced Stock Market Technical Analyst that has developed
his own proprietary analytical tools and stock market models. As a result,
he was out of the market two weeks before the 1987 Crash in the most recent
Bear Market he faxed his Members in March 2000 telling them all to SELL. He
is an advanced technical analyst and not an investment advisor, nor a securities
broker.
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