The Chapman Report

By: David Chapman | Sun, Aug 22, 2010
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US INDICES

S&P 500 Intermediate Trend: Down Short-term Trend: Down Week: Down

S&P 500 Strategy: Stand Aside
(for definitions of terms, see end of report)

S&P500 and VIX
Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 

NASDAQ Intermediate Trend: Down Short-term Trend: Down Week: Up

NASDAQ STRATEGY: Stand Aside
(for definitions of terms, see end of report)

NASDAQ and VXN
Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 


BONDS

US TREASURY BONDS Intermediate Trend: Up Short-term Trend: Up Week: Up (new highs)

US BOND STRATEGY: LONG
(for definitions of terms, see end of report)

US Treasury Bonds
Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 

 

CANADIAN BONDS Intermediate Trend: Up Short-term Trend: Up Week: Up (new highs)

CANADIAN BONDS STRATEGY: BOND MODEL STAND ASIDE, TREND SYSTEM LONG
(for definitions of terms, see end of report)

Canadian Bonds
Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 


PRECIOUS METALS AND CURRENCIES

  Intermediate term trend Short-term trend week trend intermediate strategy
Gold up up up long
Gold Bugs Index (HUI) up up up long
Silver up down down long - caution
TSX Gold Index up up up long
US$ Index up neutral up long - caution
CDN$ neutral down down Stand aside
(for definitions of terms, see end of report)

Gold & Silver

Gold and Silver
Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 

Gold Bugs Index (HUI) and TSX Gold Index

Gold Bugs Index and TSX Gold Index
Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 

Canadian Dollar

Canadian Dollar
Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 

US Dollar Index

US Dollar Index
Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 


ENERGY

  Intermediate term trend Short-term trend week trend intermediate strategy
Oil down down down Stand aside
Natural Gas down down down Stand aside
XOI Index down neutral down Stand aside
TSX Energy Index down down down Stand aside
(For definitions of terms, see end of report)

Oil & Gas

Oil and Gas
Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 

Amex Oil & Gas Index (XOI) and TSX Energy Index

XOI Index and TSX Energy Index
Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 

TSX Indices

 

TSX INDICES

  trend  
  close on
Aug 20
52-week
high
52-week
low
interm-
ediate trend
short-
term trend
Week
trend
strategy
TSX Composite 11,722.07 12,321.75 10,480.17 neutral up up Stand aside
TSX 60 682.72 723.04 692.22 down neutral up Stand aside
TSX CDNX Venture 1,479.62 1,691.00 1,155.50 down up down Stand aside
Energy 270.52 309.46 254.29 down down down Stand aside
Financials 167.52 192.26 162.75 down down up Stand aside
Information Technology 27.52 31.96 25.86 down down up Stand aside
Consumer Discretionary 90.42 92.64 74.41 up up up long hold
Consumer Staples 181.00 183.02 160.93 up up up Long hold
Healthcare 43.66 44.00 30.79 up up down long hold
(new highs)
Industrials 98.56 103.03 83.46 up neutral up Long hold
Materials 366.24 369.49 275.56 up up up Long hold
Telecommunications 86.76 87.81 72.02 up up up long hold
Utilities 197.88 204.97 168.74 up up up Long hold
Gold 379.64 395.46 290.96 up up up long hold
Metals & Mining 914.12 1168.83 754.31 down neutral up Stand aside
Real Estate 177.78 179.36 134.73 up up up long hold
(new highs)
Income Trusts 126.66 132.93 103.71 up neutral down (barely) long hold
(for definitions of terms, see end of report)


EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS

 

ETF intermediate trend short-term trend intermediate strategy
XGD/T Gold up up long hold
XMA/T Materials up up Long hold
XIT/T Technology down down Stand aside
XFN/T Financials down down Stand aside
XEG/T Energy down down Stand aside
XRE/T REIT up up long hold (new highs)
XIU/T TSX 60 down neutral Stand aside
XSP/T S&P 500 down down Stand aside
XBB/T Bonds up up Long hold (new highs)
XSB/T Short Bonds up up Long hold
XRB/T Real Return Bonds up up long hold (new highs)
XIC/T Composite neutral up Stand aside
XMD/T Mid-Cap up up Long hold
QQQQ NASDAQ down down Stand aside
SPY/NY S&P 500 down down Stand aside
EWJ/NY Japan down down Stand aside
FXI/NY China 25 neutral neutral Stand aside
EEM/NY Emerging Markets up up Long barely
GLD/NY Gold up up long hold
SLV/NY Silver up neutral long hold
IEV/NY Europe down neutral stand aside
IFN/NY India up up Long hold
TLT/NY 20-year bond up up Long hold (new highs)
(for definitions of terms, see end of report)

 

Horizon Beta Pro Single ETF's

 

ETF Intermediate trend short-term trend intermediate strategy
HBP Comex Gold HUG/T up up Long
HBP Comex Silver HUZ/T up neutral Long - caution
HBP Winter NYMEX Crude Oil HUC/T down down Stand aside
HBP Winter NYMEX Natural Gas HUN/T down down Stand aside (new lows)
HBP S&P TSX 60 Inverse HIX/T down down Stand aside - bottoming
HBP S&P Financials Inverse HIF/T up up Buy
HBP S&P Energy Inverse HIE/T up up Buy
HBP S&P Gold Inverse HIG/T down down Stand aside
(for definitions of terms, see end of report)

Please note: Horizon BetaPro products are securities of related issuers to MGI Securities.

 


DEFINITIONS OF TERMS

Intermediate-term trend (weekly trend): Of interest to conservative long term investors. As long as the intermediate trend is up, conservative long term investors can continue to hold. But watch the short-term trend for possible trend changes coming.

Short-term trend (daily trend): Of interest to more aggressive investors and traders. When the short term trend turns up more aggressive investors and traders may wish to go long. Note though that all strategy signals are based on the intermediate trend only.

Strategy:

Buy: All buy signals relate solely to the intermediate trend. A buy signal is issued when the intermediate trend turns up.

Sell: All sell signals relate solely to the intermediate trend. A sell signal is issued when the intermediate trend turns down.

Stand aside: intermediate strategy is in stand aside mode following a sell signal.

Long or long hold: intermediate trend is up following a buy signal and investors can continue to remain long.

Long or long hold - topping or caution: short term indicators are diverging negatively and there are other indicators indicating to us that the market may be topping out. Confirmation will only come when the intermediate trend turns down and issues a sell signal.

Stand aside - bottoming: short term indicators are diverging positively and there are other indicators indicating to us that the market may be about to change from stand aside to buy. Confirmation will only come when the intermediate trend turns up and issues a buy signal.

Stand aside - accumulate: similar to stand aside - bottoming above except investors may wish to consider accumulating. Confirmation will only come when the intermediate trend turns up and issues a buy.

(New highs, new lows): market or index is making new highs or new lows.

Trend Signals:

Up - Trend is up.

Down - Trend is down.

Neutral - Trend has entered a transition phase before either resuming the current trend or changing trend. This is a caution zone and signals that a trend change may be in the offing.

Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 


 

David Chapman

Author: David Chapman

David Chapman
DavidChapman.com

David Chapman

MGI Securities
26 Wellington Street East, Suite 900, Toronto, Ontario, M5E 1S2
Phone (416) 604-0533 or (toll free) 1-866-269-7773, fax (416) 604-0557

david@davidchapman.com dchapman@mgisecurities.com

General Disclosures: The information and opinions contained in this report were prepared by MGI Securities. MGI Securities is owned by Jovian Capital Corporation ('Jovian') and its employees. Jovian is a TSX Exchange listed company and as such, MGI Securities is an affiliate of Jovian. The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of MGI Securities as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. MGI Securities endeavours to ensure that the contents have been compiled or derived from sources that we believe to be reliable and contain information and opinions that are accurate and complete. However, MGI Securities makes no representations or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof, takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions contained herein and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of, or reliance on, this report or its contents. Information may be available to MGI Securities that is not reflected in this report. This report is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. The reader should not rely solely on this report in evaluating whether or not to buy or sell securities of the subject company.

Definitions: "Technical Strategist" means any partner, director, officer, employee or agent of MGI Securities who is held out to the public as a strategist or whose responsibilities to MGI Securities include the preparation of any written technical market report for distribution to clients or prospective clients of MGI Securities which does not include a recommendation with respect to a security.

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The Author of this report is an outside director of Bullion Management Group, the manager of the BMG Bullion Fund. Also, the author may from time to time, be long and or short positions in the companies named within this technical market report.

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