Investment Contingency Plans 2010-2011
The immediate fork in the road for stocks involves whether we (a) remain in a range between 940 and 1,130 on the S&P 500 or (b) can see a sustainable move above 1,130.
The CCM Bull Market Sustainability Index (BMSI) closed Monday at 1,943, which pushes us closer to the top of the neutral range with bullish territory in sight.
The ongoing and big concern in the current environment is the lack of interest in the markets, as evidenced by lackluster volume, especially on the major ETFs, like SPY, QQQQ, and DIA. The positives, which tell us a break to the upside has better odds than many believe, include good market breadth, improving technicals, and economic data which still points to a double-dip recession as the lower probability outcome.
The market will be looking for any comments related to quantitative easing in the Fed's statement due to be released Tuesday, September 21st at 2:15 p.m. ET. We also have mid-term elections in seven weeks. If the market forecasts significant turnover on November 2nd, it may help push the S&P 500 above 1,130.
The video below covers possible investment contingency plans for S&P 500 levels ranging between 940 and 1,130. The video can be watched "as is" below or you can view it with a larger screen via the YouTube version. If you have a fast internet connection, the YouTube video is a little clearer if you view it in 480p. If you have a slower internet connection, it may be better to watch it in 360p (the default) via the YouTube version.
We have been underwhelmed with the market's advance in the past few days; we would like to see some convincing participation before we become interested near current levels.