The Research In Motion Forensic Valuation and Analysis is Released to the Public
Now that Research in Motion has reached our valuation target and offered the opportunity for material gain for our subscribers, I have decided to released the full 45 page professional Forensic Valuation report to the public. It is quite extensive, and has been quite accurate to date...
And from the valuation section of our Forensic Report (those who have downloaded it can refer to page 30)...
As you can see, we did a phenomenal job at anticipating the share price fall and the practical floor. Those of you who used options and/or leverage with proper risk management should have benefited handsomely. Of course, this particular industry segment moves much more rapidly than most, which is why we have taken the opportunity to add flexibility in our valuations and analysis (page 32)...
As is usual, I welcome any and all to compare BoomBustBlog research to anything available from the sell side. I am confident many will wish to subscribe after an apples to apples comparison. This report release to the public is done in anticipation of the much more comprehensive, 65 page Google Forensic Valuation (hopefully by later on today or tomorrow morning) and the upcoming Apple Forensic Valuation. Please keep in mind that the Research in Motion story is not over, by a long shot. It looks as if they may have pulled a much needed rabbit out of their hat with their new tablet, but at this point it is still vaporware from our perspective since I have yet to get my hands on one. If it is what it is chocked up to be, it will then be up to management to execute. Their track record over their last 3 attempts at larger screen form factors have been wanting, at best, but maybe the fourth time around is a charm.
Professional subscribers should take advantage of the interactive valuation
tools that I have made available to adjust the assumptions in the valuation
model to keep abreast of the RIM situation (see 
RIMM
Multivariate Valuation Model). We have not updated the assumptions since
before the earnings announcement, so there is some fine tuning to be done regarding
the valuation report, but the gist of the story remains the same, and the report's
premise remains quite valid. I recommend all paying subscribers use the market
share tools to assist in fine tuning their assumptions moving forward. This
is a rapidly changing landscape, and what was once the underdog may become
the champion - seemingly overnight. I, personally, am still quite skeptical
of RIM management's ability to execute in this environment, but I am keeping
my eyes open.
RIMM
Multivariate Valuation Model - Formerly available to Pro and institutional
subscribers, now released to the public. You will have to register
for a free subscription to the site to download.- Smartphone
Market Model - Blog Download Version - all paying subscribers
- Mobile Operating System Market Share Model - all paying subscribers
Previous Research in Motion commentary
- The Blacker the Berry, the Smaller the Market Share?
- Despite What May Appear to Be Strong Fundamentals RIMM Is In Trouble, Look Past the Present and Into the Future
- BoomBustBlog Research Opinion Hits the Mainstream Media, Sort Of...
- As I Have Anticipated, There is Absolutely No Fire in the Torch, Except for the One That's Frying RIMM's Share Price
- After Getting a Glimpse of the New Windows Phone 7 Functionality, RIMM is Looking More Like a Short Play
- RIM Smart Phone Market Share, RIP?
- This Quarter Offers a Lot of Challenges for Smart Phone Vendors with Fruit in Their Names!
- Many More Black Eyes for the Blackberry? A Complete Forensic Analysis of Research in Motion
- The BoomBustBlog Multivariate Research in Motion Valuation Model: Ready for Download
- As Research in Motion Continues Its Inevitable Downward Descent In Both Equity Value and Market Share, Investors Should Tweak Their Assumptions Accordingly
Subscription content (click here to subscribe):
- RIMM
Forensic Analysis and Valuation - Professional & Institutional
- RIMM
Forensic Analysis and Valuation - Retail
- RIMM Multivariate Valuation Model
- Smartphone Market Model - Blog Download Version - all paying subscribers
- Mobile Operating System Market Share Model - all paying subscribers
More on the Creatively Destructive Pace of Technology Innovation and the Paradigm Shift known as the Mobile Computing Wars!
- There Is Another Paradigm Shift Coming in Technology and Media: Apple, Microsoft and Google Know its Winner Takes All
- The Mobile Computing and Content Wars: Part 2, the Google Response to the Paradigm Shift
- An Introduction to How Apple Apple Will Compete With the Google/Android Onslaught
- Don't Count Microsoft Out of the Ultra-Mobile Computing Wars Just Yet
- This article should drive the point home: An iPhone 4 Recall Will Hurt Apple More By Opening Additional Opportunity for Android Devices Than Increased Expenses
- A First in the Mainstream Media: Apple's Flagship Product Loses In a Comparison Review to HTC's Google-Powered Phone
- After Getting a Glimpse of the New Windows Phone 7 Functionality, RIMM is Looking More Like a Short Play
- RIM Smart Phone Market Share, RIP?
- Android is gaining preference as the long-term choice of application developers
- A Glimpse of the BoomBustBlog Internal Discussion Concerning the Fate of Apple
- Math and the Pace of Smart Phone Innovation May Take a Byte Out of Apple's (Short-lived?) Dominance
- Apple on the Margin
- RIM Smart Phone Market Share, RIP?
- Motorola, the Company That INVENTED the Cellphone is Trying to Uninvent the iPad With Android
- Android Now Outselling iOS? Explaining the Game of Chess That Google Plays in the Smart Phone Space
- There Goes Those Fancy eBook Aspirations from Apple, Barnes and Noble, and Amazon: 100,000's of FREE eBooks from the Public Library
- How Google is Looking to Cut Apple's Margin and How the Sell Side of Wall Street Will Enable This Without Sheeple Investor's Having a Clue
- Empirical Evidence of Android Eating Apple!
- More of the Android Onslaught: Increasing Handset Revenues and Growth
- Many More Black Eyes for the Blackberry? A Complete Forensic Analysis of Research in Motion
- The BoomBustBlog Multivariate Research in Motion Valuation Model: Ready for Download
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Author: Reggie Middleton
Reggie
Middleton
Reggie Middleton, LLC
Perpetual Interests, LLCTM
http://boombustblog.com/
Who am I?
Well, I fancy myself the personification of the free thinking maverick, the ultimate non-conformist as it applies to investment and analysis. I am definitively outside the box - not your typical or stereotypical Wall Street investor. I work out of my home, not a Manhattan office. I build my own technology and perform my own research - in lieu of buying it or following the crowd. I create and follow my own macro strategies and am by definition, a contrarian to the nth degree.
Since I use my research as a tool for my own investing to actually put food on my table, I can stand behind it as doing what it is supposed too - educate, illustrate and elucidate. I do not sell advice, I am not a reporter hence do not sell stories, and I do not sell research. I am an entrepreneur who exists just outside of mainstream corporate America and Wall Street. This allows me freedom to do things that many can not. For instance, I pride myself on developing some of the highest quality research available, regardless of price. No conflicts of interest, no corporate politics, no special favors. Just the hard truth as I have found it - and believe me, my team and I do find it! I welcome any and all to peruse my blog, use my custom hacked collaborative social tools, read the articles, download the files, and make a critical comparison of the opinion referencing the situation at hand and the time stamp on the blog post to the reality both at the time of the post and the present. Hopefully, you will be as impressed with the Boom Bust as I am and our constituency.
I pay for significant information and data, and am well aware of the value of quality research. I find most currently available research lacking, in both quality and quantity. The reason why I had to create my own research staff was due to my dissatisfaction with what was currently available - to both individuals and institutions.
So here I am, creating my own research for my own investment activity. What really sets my actions apart is that I offer much of what I produce to the public without charge - free to distribute and redistribute, as long as it is left unaltered and full attribution is given to the author and owner. Why would I do such a thing when others easily charge 5 and 6 digits annually for what some may consider a lesser product? It is akin to open source analysis! My ideas and implementations are actually improved and fine tuned when bounced off of the collective intellect of the many, in lieu of that of the few - no matter how smart those few may believe themselves to be.
Very recently, I have started charging for the forensics portion of my work, which has freed up the resources to develop the site to deliver even more research for free, particularly on the global macro and opinion front. This move has allowed me to serve an more diverse constituency, which now includes the institutional consumer (ie., investment turned consumer banks, hedge funds, pensions, etc,) as well as the newbie individual investor who is just getting started - basically the two polar opposites of the investing spectrum. I am proud to announce major banks as paying clients, and brand new investors who take my book recommendations and opinions on true wealth and success to heart.
So, this is how I use my background and knowledge in new media, distributed computing, risk management, insurance, financial engineering, real estate, corporate valuation and financial analysis to pursue, analyze and capitalize on global macroeconomic opportunities. I have included a more in depth bio at the bottom of the page for those who really, really need to know more about me.
Visit his blog Boom Bust Blog.
Copyright © 2007-2012 Reggie Middleton
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