24kt Gold

By: Joseph Russo | Tue, Oct 12, 2010
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Charting markets

Gold Market Update

This 10-minute video-article takes visual look back at where gold has traded since 2005, and where it may be heading in the next few years.


Step into the past:

In November 2005, Elliott Wave Technology launched its charting and forecasting service as Gold was full swing into its fifth year of advancing in a robust bull market. At the time, Gold was trading in the 500-dollar range - up over 100% after registering a 20-year bear market low in 1999. We were long-term bullish then, and we remain so now.

We produced the three charts that follow from an archived back issue of our Near Term Outlook published on October 29, 2008. In direct contrast to some of the most notable mainstream Elliott wave authorities, we saw the October 681 low as an incredible buying opportunity vs. the onset of a total deflationary collapse in the Gold price.

Since then, the price of Gold has doubled, yet no one has invited us for an interview on CNBC. That is fine by us, in fact, we like things just the way they are; no fanfare, no beating the drum on dead wave counts, just getting the job done right is all that concerns us.

That said, let us now go back, and review where we stood two years ago.

October 28, 2008 long-term monthly bar chart
Gold Monthly

Long-Term Elliott Wave Analysis 10-23-2008
In our last comments on June 10, we stated- "There is good argument that the recent breach of $1000, and print high of 1030, marks the terminal to Primary "3". We are now compelled to give preference to this count as reflected in the charts above.

Chart highlights: Upon the breakout above the 730.40 level in September 2007, we cited an upside price target of 1200. Upon the cross above the 875 level in November 2007, we cited a 1495 upside price target.

October 28, 2008 weekly bars
Gold Weekly

Chart highlights: Following its first print high north of 1000 at the primary 3-wave designation, note the captured downside sell-trigger target of 685 (circled in blue), which booked profits 4-points from the 681 primary degree 4-wave bottom.

October 28, 2008 daily bars
Gold Daily

Near-Term Outlook for GOLD 10-28-2008:
- Potential clarity amid prospects of a Primary 4 wave down in process of basing-
We now view Gold as basing in a primary fourth wave decline. There exists a general 9-year cycling of lows in the Gold market. The last major low was set in 1999, and as such, 2008 provides a period to anticipate another cyclical low point from which Gold may put in another long-term base. The balance of trajectories, targets, point-values, wave-labels, and alternates remain as noted.

Chart highlights: Note the level of detailed accuracy in which we tracked the a-b-c-d-e minor degree expanding wedge and its minute degree subdivisions amid the eight-month decline into the base of the primary 4-wave down.

All told, there is no question that our guidance, forecasting, and interpretations from two years ago were spot on the money.


Back to the future:

Below, we have drafted our latest and most bullish long-term forecast for Gold. Thus far, it maintains adherence to our standing interpretations set forth some five years ago. If the self-anointed masters of our financial universe continue tinkering with their QE toolkits, and policy makers continue to exhibit spineless leadership, do not be surprised if Gold strikes 2400 within the next few years.

Truthfully, we do not wish to see gold trading at 2400 no matter how much physical we may own. Such an outcome would suggest a Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation has taken root. Such an occurrence would likely engender an elongated period of widespread civil unrest.

Gold

Until next time,
Trade Better/Invest Smarter

 


Our client based screen cast publications include coverage of all the major US markets. Each screen cast includes an abundance of charts, details, guidance, as well as access to our proprietary programmed trading systems, which are engaged in the markets amidst every timeframe imaginable. In celebration of our Fibonacci fifth year of service, we are offering a phenomenal 62% first month trial discount to all new subscribers for the balance of 2010. From any of our order pages, enter the Coupon code: NCC-1701 and your first monthly or quarterly charge will reflect the trial discount.

 


 

Joseph Russo

Author: Joseph Russo

Joseph Russo
Chief Editor and Technical Analyst
Elliott Wave Technology

Joseph Russo

Since the dot.com bubble, 911, and the 2002 market crash, Elliott Wave Technology's mission remains the delivery of valuable solutions-based services that empower clients to execute successful trading and investment decisions in all market environments.

Joe Russo is an entrepreneurial publisher and market analyst providing digital online media solutions designed to assist traders and investors in prudently and profitably navigating their exposure to the financial markets.

Since the official launch of his Elliott Wave Technology website in 2005, he has established an outstanding record of accomplishment, including but not limited to, ...

  • In 2005, he elicited a major long-term wealth producing nugget of guidance in suggesting strongly that members give serious consideration to apportioning 10%-20% of their net worth toward the physical acquisition of Gold (@ $400.) and Silver (@ $6.00).

  • In 2006, the (MTA) Market Technicians Association featured his article "Scaling Perceptions amid the Global Equity Boom" in their industry newsletter, "Technically Speaking."

  • On May 6 of 2007, five months prior to the market top in 2007, though still bullish at that time, he publicly warned long-term investors not to be fooled again, in "Bullish Like There's No Tomorrow."

  • On March 10 of 2008, with another 48% of downside remaining to the bottom of the great bear market of 2008-2009, in "V-for Vendetta," using the Wilshire 5000 as proxy, he publicly laid out the case for the depth and amplitude of the unfolding bear market, which marked terminal to a rather nice long-run in equity values.

  • Working extensively with EasyLanguage® programmer George Pruitt in 2010 and 2011, the author of "Building Winning Trading Systems with TradeStation," he assisted in the development of several proprietary trading systems.

  • On February 11, 2011, he publicly made available his call for a key bottom in the long bond at 117 '3/32. Within a year and half from his call, the long bond rallied in excess of 30% to new all time highs in July of 2012.

  • For the benefit of members and his general readership, he responded to widespread levels of economic and financial uncertainty in the development of Prudent Measures in 2012.

  • He publicly warned of a major top in Apple on October 26, 2012 in the very early stages of a 40% decline from its all time high.

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