Investing Wisely -- General and Comprehensive Forecast: November 27th

By: Steve Bauer | Sat, Nov 27, 2010
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Brief Introduction:

This is my version of a - General and Comprehensive Forecast for:

* 5 Indices
* 4 Primary Sectors
* 8 Sectors
* 24 High Profile Companies
* 6 Industry Groups

It is both simply structured and designed with a sincere purpose: That is to offer you general direction / guidance in making consistently profitable decisions while "Investing Wisely"in the stock market.

It is exclusively for - Serious Investors.

It is also my Bellwether selection of the above listed areas of the marketplace.



A Simple Table with My Most Current Forecast - for "Investing Wisely":

This Forecast is supported by Charts for each component listed below in StockCharts.com. Each chart is annotated and updated rather frequently. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID4095527

Symbol   Forecast
My Analytics Weighting:
Fundamental Analysis: 40%
Technical Analysis: 35%
Consensus Analysis: 25%
 
Indices   Special Note:

Indices Analytics is what many refer to as a "top down" starting point. Not so, for me - I track relatively few Indices and use a wide variety of technical chart configurations to stay focused on this part of my analytics.

My investment decisions to invest or hold cash are also Weighted. For Indices the weighting is 60%. (60% is generally the accepted percent of influence that a security carries) Therefore you had better be in phase with the marketplace when you invest.

Economics and Fundamentals dominate my work / analytics for Indices.

However, My Rotation Model, SHB Cycle Analysis and Inflection Point - - the Three Pillars of my Methodology is my secret formula for consistent and profitable investing.
$NYA - $COMPQ Over - View:

* Over the coming days, the focus for me will be to let this current Bullish Cycle run its course. In this marketplace, that can mean days, a few weeks but definitely not much more! At this writing it looks like DAYS! With this said: I believe it has "run its course".

* It is possible that a Bearish - Inflection Point could occur in the very near-term. DAYS! An Initial Bearish - Inflection Point has been made.

* Topping action continues and the risk of investing in most anything is very high at this time. Minimizing the Risk / Reward Ratio is critical to consistent profitability.

* You should be or have been selling long positions as they reach their own individual Inflection Point. Many Company securities have already reached that condition. I'd be happy to help you.

Bottom Line:

* A Bearish - Trend has started!

$SPX - $MID - $SML (same as the above)
 
Primary Sectors   Special Note:

Primary Sector Analytics is also very important in the over-all process of identification of Inflection Points. At times these primary sectors are in phase with the general market and at other times they are not.
 
Emerging Markets:

$MSEMF - EET&EEV
  (same as the above Forecast for my Indices - these securities track the Indices very well)
Gold & Silver:

$GOLD - $SILVER
The current momentum of these Commodities is very strong and identification of the specific "Top" will be difficult. I recommend that if you have a decent profit is either the Mining Companies or ETFs that you consider taking those profits.
Bullion is a different story.
Crude Oil:

$WTIC & USO
Crude Oil is topping and a Bearish Inflection Point is drawing near. Inverse ETFs will do well. !

This should be a good opportunity to "Invest Wisely."
U. S. Dollar:

$USD - UUP & UDN
The U. S. Dollar is trying to bottom. Be careful of the normal expectation that it will rise if the market has a pullback! Or, that if the U. S. Dollar turns up that there will be a General Market pullback! I is just not axiomatic.
 
Sectors   Special Notes:

Like the above Indices and Primary Sectors these particular sectors are vital to my identification of Inflection Points.
Basic Industries:

UYM &SMN
Basic Industries is topping and a Bearish Inflection Point is drawing near. Inverse ETFs will do well. !

This should be a good opportunity to "Invest Wisely."
Consumer Goods:

UGE &SZK
Consumer Goods is topping and a Bearish Inflection Point is drawing near. Inverse ETFs will do well. !

This should be a good opportunity to "Invest Wisely."
Consumer Services / Retail:

UCC &SCC
Consumer Services / Retail is topping and a Bearish Inflection Point is drawing near. Inverse ETFs will do well. !

This should be a good opportunity to "Invest Wisely."
Energy:

DIG &DUG
Energy is topping and a Bearish Inflection Point is drawing near. Inverse ETFs will do well. !

This should be a good opportunity to "Invest Wisely."
Financials:

UYG &SKF
Financials is topping and a Bearish Inflection Point is drawing near. Inverse ETFs will do well. !

This should be a good opportunity to "Invest Wisely."
Health Care:

RXL &RXD
Health Care is topping and a Bearish Inflection Point is drawing near. Inverse ETFs will do well. !

This should be a good opportunity to "Invest Wisely."
Technology:

ROM &REW
Technology is topping and a Bearish Inflection Point is drawing near. Inverse ETFs will do well. !

This should be a good opportunity to "Invest Wisely."
Utilities:

UPW &SDP
Utilities is topping and a Bearish Inflection Point is drawing near. Inverse ETFs will do well!

This should be a good opportunity to "Invest Wisely."
 
High Profile Companies   Special Notes:

These Companies are my favorite Bellwether / Leading Indicators. They are seldom used for investments. Therefore, my General Forecast is - they will typically track the Indices and their Sectors very well. Should there be something special to share, I will include my thoughts.

When I take positions in Companies or ETFs for my Clients my Valuations, Projections and Forecasts are much more specific for every individual Company or ETF.
 
AAPL   (same as the above Forecast for my Indices / Primary Sectors / Sectors - these securities track the Indices very well)
AMZN (same as AAPL)
BA (same as AAPL)
BAC In my Blogs I identified Banks as a very weak Industry Group some weeks ago. It is important, in my work / analytics to invest only when a Company or ETF is in phase with the General Market. Therefore I will wait for the "Possible Bearish Inflection Point" on my Charts.
BP (same as AAPL)
C In my Blogs I identified Banks as a very weak Industry Group some weeks ago. It is important, in my work / analytics to invest only when a Company or ETF is in phase with the General Market. Therefore I will wait for the "Possible Bearish Inflection Point" on my Charts.
CAT (same as AAPL)
CSCO CSCO is and has been a special situation and very difficult to project.
DOW (same as AAPL)
GE (same as AAPL)
GOOG (same as AAPL)
GS (same as AAPL)
HPQ (same as AAPL)
IBM (same as AAPL)
INTC (same as AAPL)
JNJ (same as AAPL)
JPM In my Blogs I identified Banks as a very weak Industry Group some weeks ago. It is important, in my work / analytics to invest only when a Company or ETF is in phase with the General Market. Therefore I will wait for the "Possible Bearish Inflection Point" on my Charts.
MSFT (same as AAPL)
PFE (same as AAPL)
SO (same as AAPL)
T (same as AAPL)
WFC In my Blogs I identified Banks as a very weak Industry Group some weeks ago. It is important, in my work / analytics to invest only when a Company or ETF is in phase with the General Market. Therefore I will wait for the"Possible Bearish Inflection Point" on my Charts.
WMT (same as AAPL)
XOM (same as AAPL)
 
Industry Groups   Special Note:

These Industry Groups are also Bellwether / Leading Indicators for me.

The listing of just a few is because:
* I begin to include the Industry Groups that are my focus, when anticipating an Inflection Point. At this time my focus / anticipation is for a Bearish Inflection Point.

* I will be sharing my Recommendations in my other Blogs.
The component Companies or ETFs each have a separate Fundamental Valuation, Technical Criterion and Consensus Review.
 
Semiconductors:

$DJUSSC
  * An" Article "in Seeking Alpha supports this Industry Group.

* This is an Industry Group that can be Shorted. Be Patient&Disciplined and wait for the Inflection Point.
O & G - Equip'mt & Service:

$DJUSOI
* An" Article "in Seeking Alpha supports this Industry Group.

* This is an Industry Group that can be Shorted. Be Patient&Disciplined and wait for the Inflection Point.
Electric Utilities:

$DJUSEU
* An" Article "in Seeking Alpha supports this Industry Group.

* This is an Industry Group that can be Shorted. Be Patient&Disciplined and wait for the Inflection Point.
Coal:

$DJUSCL
* An" Article "in Seeking Alpha supports this Industry Group.

* This is an Industry Group that Should Not be Shorted. It is a very positive Industry Group.

Note: If you are having inconsistent annual profitability in this marketplace you are just like many others that I visit with quite personally by Email. I believe I can help you smooth out the bumps, but we need to be on the same page! Let me know privately, if you would be interested in my work / analytics and some direction / guidance.


Important Note / Disclosure:

Do Not - try to anticipate my Forecasts and Do Not - Invest without contacting me regarding my current thinking for your investment considerations or contact your personal financial advisor.


My - Inflection Points: I hope you will take the time to consider and evaluate how this approach can benefit you.

Put simple, focusing on the "What" and the "When" is what I do professionally and both"W's"have become very critical in today's stock market. That is, if you are interested in being a consistent /profitable investor.

Inflection Point analytics is one of my Three Pillars of My Methodology. It is just simple a tool used in conjunction with My Rotation Model and My SHB Cycle (see my - Personal / Private Blog). The accuracy for identifying the current position of the General Market, Emerging Markets, Gold & Silver, Crude Oil and the U.S. Dollar, etc. is excellent. There are many other Inflection Points - sub-sets, including all the Sectors, Industry Groups and their component Companies and ETFs.

If you are interested in the "When" and my flow of specific security Recommendations that come from my Inflection Points! - please read my request for information at the bottom of this Article and respond. Please understand: This stuff is definitely not for everybody! If you are not a Serious Investor, please pass.



My Current Bottom Line:

* I am currently holding 100% Bearish Positions.

* Patience and Discipline - waiting for my list of Fundamental, Consensus and Technical - "Conformations" to all fall into place is part of the necessary process for "Investing Wisely".

* Inflection Points historically have occurred historically about three - five times per annum. We have already had 5 clear and meaningful Inflection Points so far this year. Investing at or around the time of my Inflection Points has proven to be a profitable way to invest.

* High Volatility may not currently be showing up on VIX - lately, but it is clearly - alive and well.


If you would like to have:

* After my making specific Recommendations (last week) - An Email from me at the time I Sell / Cover each of my specific Recommendations.

* Information about my Work / Methodology / Services, or of my personal and professional background.

* A second opinion based on an article or something said on the financial networks.

* My performance record while contributing with SafeHaven.

* My on going Research / Analytics Commentary, 2 -3 times each week you may want to become a "Follower" of my personal / private Blog.

* And you are a -- Serious Investor . . .

Just send me an Email, and I will respond promptly.


Thank you for your time in reading my "stuff" and continued interest in my work / analytics.

Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",

 


 

Steve Bauer

Author: Steve Bauer

Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Steve Bauer

Steve has several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and doctorate and a great deal of (too much) continued education. For seven years, he did a stent as a University Professor of Finance and Economics.

Dr. Bauer also writes for SeekingAlpha.com. His articles can be viewed at: http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer?source=search_general&s=steven-bauer

He owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

Professionally he is a financial analyst and private asset manager / consultant / mentor.

Steve can be reached at senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2010-2013 Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

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