Manufacturing PMIs
I remarked in a post on Friday that the November manufacturing PMIs came in much stronger than the market and I expected. Only Spain, Italy and Australia reported weaker growth, with the U.S. marginally lower. The manufacturing sectors in most countries except Australia, Japan and Greece continue to expand. Brazil is on the brink of expanding again, whereas Spain finds itself on the edge of contraction.
Country |
Manufacturing PMI | Trend |
|
| Nov-10 | Oct-10 | ||
| U.S.***** | 56.6 | 56.9 | Little slower, expanding |
| Eurozone* | 55.3 | 54.6 | Stronger, expanding |
| Germany* | 58.1 | 56.6 | Robust |
| France* | 57.9 | 55.2 | Robust |
| Netherlands* | 56.5 | 55.4 | Stronger, expanding |
| Greece* | 43.9 | 43.6 | Contraction moderating |
| Italy* | 52.0 | 53.0 | Slower, expanding |
| Spain* | 50.0 | 51.2 | Slower, contraction looming |
| Ireland* | 51.2 | 50.9 | Higher, expanding |
| U.K.* | 58.0 | 54.9 | Robust |
| Japan* | 47.3 | 47.2 | Little change, contracting |
| Australia* | 47.6 | 49.4 | Contraction deepening |
| Emerging Economies | |||
| Brazil* | 49.9 | 49.5 | Contraction moderating |
| China** | 55.2 | 54.7 | Stronger, expanding |
| Czech* | 57.3 | 57.2 | Robust |
| Poland* | 55.9 | 55.6 | Stronger, expanding |
| Turkey* | 56.4 | 54.3 | Stronger, expanding |
| India* | 58.4 | 57.2 | Robust |
| Russia* | 51.1 | 51.8 | Slower, expanding slowly |
| RSA*** | 52.9 | 49.8 | Stronger, expanding again |
| Taiwan* | 51.7 | 48.6 | Stronger, expanding again |
| JP Morgan Global**** | 54.0 | 53.7 | Stronger, expanding |
Non-manufacturing/services PMIs
The non-manufacturing/services PMIs released for November indicated that the global expansion in the global services or non-manufacturing sector gained traction, with the JP Morgan Global Services PMI inching up to 54.8 from 54.6 in October. The services sector in the Eurozone was particularly strong, with Germany leading from the front as the PMI in the latter ratcheted up to a broad-based robust 59.2 from 56.0 in October. Italy also saw an improvement, with the PMI improving to 54.4 from a near neutral 50.9 in October as a result of an increase in foreign demand. Spain and Ireland continue to lag the rest of the Eurozone due to the increased uncertainty regarding the outcome of the present crisis and austerity measures. Growth in the non-manufacturing sector in the U.S. accelerated in November, with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI improving to 55.0 from 54.3 in October.
The services sector in Australia again contracted in November as the PMI plummeted 4.5 points to 46.2. India was the bright spark in Asia as a strong rise in new business orders pushed the services PMI to 61.3 from an already robust 58.4 in October. I already covered the slump in China's CFLP non-manufacturing PMI in a previous blog where I attributed the drop from 60.5 to 53.2 to seasonal factors. The business environment in Japan's services sectors improved to a near neutral 49.5 from contracting in October as a result of growth in new business.
| Country | Non-manufacturing/Services PMI | ||
| November 2010 | October 2010 | Trend | |
| United States | 55.0 | 54.3 | Stronger, expanding |
| Eurozone | 55.4 | 53.3 | Stronger, expanding |
| Germany | 59.2 | 56.0 | Robust |
| France | 55.0 | 54.8 | Stronger, expanding |
| Italy | 54.4 | 51.0 | Stronger, expanding |
| Spain | 48.3 | 46.5 | Contraction moderating |
| Ireland | 50.8 | 50.9 | Unchanged, expanding slowly |
| U.K. | 53.0 | 53.2 | Marginally softer, expanding |
| Australia | 46.2 | 50.7 | Plummeted into contraction |
| Japan | 49.5 | 47.2 | Contraction moderating |
| Emerging Economies | |||
| Brazil | 52.1 | 51.8 | Higher, expanding |
| China* | 53.2 | 60.5 | Growth slowed significantly |
| India | 61.3 | 58.4 | Robust |
| Russia | 54.1 | 54.7 | Moderately slower, expanding |
| JP Morgan Global Services | 54.8 | 54.6 | Slightly higher, expanding |
GDP-weighted/composite PMIs
On a GDP-weighted/composite basis where the manufacturing and non-manufacturing/services are both taken into account, the growth in global economic activity continues to expand but at a marginally slower rate, taking the JP Morgan Global Composite PMI Index to 54.6 from 54.8 in October.
| GDP-weighted/ Composite PMI | Trend | ||
| Country | Nov-10 | Oct-10 | |
| U.S. | 55.4 | 54.9 | Stronger, expanding |
| Eurozone | 55.4 | 53.7 | Stronger, expanding |
| Germany | 59.0 | 56.0 | Robust |
| U.K. | 54.4 | 53.7 | Stronger, expanding |
| Japan | 48.7 | 47.2 | Contraction moderating |
| Emerging Economies | |||
| Brazil | 51.5 | 50.8 | Moderately stronger, expanding |
| China* | 54.0 | 58.2 | Slowing, expanding |
| JPMorgan Global | 54.6 | 54.8 | Marginally slower, expanding |
Sources: Markit; CFLP*; Li & Fung*; ISM; Plexus Asset Management.
Conclusion
U.S. economy: GDP growth holding up
My GDP-weighted ISM PMI for the U.S. leads U.S. real GDP growth by a quarter. At this stage it indicates that the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter is running at a rate of approximately 2.5% on a year-ago basis but that the growth in the first quarter of next year could improve.
Sources: ISM; FRED; Plexus Asset Management.
Eurozone: GDP growth cycle to peak in the current quarter?
The GDP-weighted PMI for the Eurozone gives me insight into where the Eurozone economy is heading. It is currently suggesting that the economy is maintaining growth of approximately 2% on a year-ago basis. Year-on-year growth in the GDP is likely to moderate in the first quarter of next year.
Sources: Markit (various internet sources); I-Net; Plexus Asset Management.
China's GDP-weighted PMI: down as expected, but expect a major rebound in December
My calculated GDP-weighted PMI for China was in line with my expectations based on the apparent seasonal trend. I therefore expect a significant seasonal rebound in December. What is evident, though, is that the expansion is on par with that of last year and that there is no indication yet of a train smash ahead as happened in 2008.
Sources: CFLP; Plexus Asset Management.
From a forecasting point of view the CFLP manufacturing PMI gives a better picture of underlying GDP growth due to lower seasonality.
Sources: Dismal Scientist; Li & Fung; Plexus Asset Management.
Japan: a mixed picture
A significant diversion is shaping up between Japan's GDP growth and the manufacturing PMI. If the trend in the manufacturing PMI is likely to shape the future, then I am afraid Japan's economy may soon find itself in a double-dip recession.
Sources: Dismal Scientist; Markit; Plexus Asset Management.
U.K. economy: the ship has steadied for now
The U.K.'s year-on-year GDP growth has finally caught up with my calculated GDP-weighted PMI (manufacturing and services combined). The composite PMI currently indicates that growth in the fourth quarter has slowed somewhat from the third quarter's 2.8% but should accelerate in the first quarter of next year.
Sources: Dismal Scientist; Markit; Plexus Asset Management.
The manufacturing and non-manufacturing/services PMI numbers for November were better than I expected and are likely to hold up in December.
In the longer run I remain very skeptical regarding the outlook for the global economy. There are just too many black swans out there! Leading indicators in China have fallen in a heap. Will the second round of quantitative easing in the U.S. be able to turn the house market? What about the potential contagion of the debt crisis in the Eurozone?
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Author: Prieur du Plessis
Dr Prieur du Plessis
investmentpostcards.com
With 25 years' experience in investment research and portfolio management, Dr Prieur du Plessis is one of the most experienced and well-known investment professionals in South Africa. More than 1 000 of his articles on investment-related topics have been published in various regular newspaper, journal and Internet columns. He also published a book, Financial Basics: Investment, in 2002.
He holds the following degrees: BSc (Quantity Surveying) (Cape Town), HonsB (B & A) (cum laude) (Stellenbosch), MBA (cum laude) (Stellenbosch); and DBA (Doctor of Financial Management) (Stellenbosch).
Prieur is chairman of the Plexus group of companies, which he founded in 1995. Previously he was general manager: portfolio management at Sanlam, responsible for the management of investment portfolios with total assets in excess of $5 billion.
Plexus is a pioneer in the mutual fund industry and has achieved a number of firsts under Prieur's leadership. These include the authoritative Plexus Survey, a quarterly analysis of the consistency of the performance of unit trust management companies, the Plexus Offshore Survey, the Plexus Unit Trust Indices, and the PlexCrown Fund Ratings.
Plexus is the South African partner of John Mauldin, American author of the most widely distributed investment newsletter in the world, and also has an exclusive licensing agreement with California-based Research Affiliates for managing and distributing its enhanced Fundamental Index™ methodology in the Pan-African area.
In 2001 Prieur received the Santam/AHI Business Leader of the Year award for corporate leadership, business acumen and entrepreneurial flair. He was also profiled in the book South Africa's Leading Managers (2006). Plexus received the AHI/Old Mutual Enterprise of the Year award in 1997 and was also included in the book South Africa's Most Promising Companies (2005).
Prieur is 52 years old and lives with his wife, TV producer and presenter Isabel Verwey, and two children in Welgemoed, Cape Town. His recreational activities include long-distance running, motor cycling and reading. He belongs to the Cape Town Club, Johannesburg Country Club, Gordon's Bay Yacht Club and Swiss Social & Sports Club.
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