Investing Wisely - Year End Forecast for 2011

By: Steve Bauer | Sun, Dec 26, 2010
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Brief Introduction

My focus is "Investing Wisely", e.g. taking advantage of the Bull / Bear Cycles as they occur within the overall marketplace. Integrating modern analytics within these Cycles, means maintaining a process of the thorough fundamental, technical and consensus analysis of the marketplace. I believe that this discipline provides the necessary clarity regarding the Rotation that most all Companies goes through - from favorable times to unfavorable times and perhaps back again.



Forecast

I am going to climb out on the limb again as we close out this year.

It is not clear sailing for the Bulls or the Economy - in front of us.

I would simple like to share some of the things that I think "fight" the conclusion that many pundits are drawing for 2011:

So if the above is correct it is going to put a big dent in markets that are now trading very rich. If in fact what we are seeing is a big misread on the economy and a distortion by QE2 then we are going to see the bottom levels on the charts again



My Current Bottom Line:

* I am holding 100% Bearish Positions.

* Patience and Discipline - waiting for my list of Fundamental, Consensus and Technical - "Conformations" to all fall into place is part of the necessary process for "Investing Wisely".

* Inflection Points historically have occurred historically about three - five times per annum. We have already had 5 clear and meaningful Inflection Points so far this year. Investing at or around the time of my Inflection Points has proven to be a profitable way to invest.

* In my late August posting, I said: "The Market is now (very possible) setting up for another meaningful but likely (short in duration) Rally!" It certainly did rally!

* Now it looks just the opposite. One of these days this choppy and bifurcated market (late April to date) will do something meaningful and the next possibility of that is a meaningful Pullback.

* High Volatility may not currently be showing up on VIX due to the current rally - but VIX being an Inverse Indicator, I can assure you that it is clearly - alive and well.


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* And you are a -- Serious Investor ...

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Thank you for your time in reading my "stuff" and continued interest in my work.

Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",

 


 

Steve Bauer

Author: Steve Bauer

Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

Steve Bauer

Steve has several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and doctorate and a great deal of (too much) continued education. For seven years, he did a stent as a University Professor of Finance and Economics.

Dr. Bauer also writes for SeekingAlpha.com. His articles can be viewed at: http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer?source=search_general&s=steven-bauer

He owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

Professionally he is a financial analyst and private asset manager / consultant / mentor.

Steve can be reached at senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2010-2013 Steven H. Bauer, Ph.D.

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TRUE MONEY SUPPLY

Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/