Update: 2011 Outlook for Commodities Remains Positive

By: Chris Ciovacco | Thu, Dec 30, 2010
Print Email

Given a basket of commodities, as measured by the CRB Index, is up a healthy 9.72% this month, it may be a good time to revisit the longer-term outlook. While the daily chart of the CRB is showing some signs of short-term fatigue, the outlook for the next three-to-six months still appears to be encouraging.

On December 8th, with the CRB Index trading at 315.62, we published the following chart and comments in Outlook for Commodities Remains Positive:

BEFORE: As of December 7th

Commodity Trends 2006-2010

If we think of the above chart as the "BEFORE" chart, the chart below is an updated version showing the CRB's progress since the chart above was published on December 7, 2010.

CRB 2006-2010

Our December 7th comments expand on the relevance of the MACD indicator shown at the top portion of the charts shown above. If the CRB Index were to move to 350 sometime in the next few months, it would represent an additional gain of 5.83% from the December 29th close. Keep in mind, the comments above relate to the next few months; short-term pullbacks are always a possibility. A bullish outlook for commodities dovetails nicely with the positive outlook for stocks in 2011.

 


 

Chris Ciovacco

Author: Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco
Ciovacco Capital Management

Chris Ciovacco

Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. More on the web at www.ciovaccocapital.com.

All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment counselors and tax advisors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. This memorandum is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE.

Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC is an independent money management firm based in Atlanta, Georgia. CCM helps individual investors and businesses, large & small; achieve improved investment results via research and globally diversified investment portfolios. Since we are a fee-based firm, our only objective is to help you protect and grow your assets. Our long-term, theme-oriented, buy-and-hold approach allows for portfolio rebalancing from time to time to adjust to new opportunities or changing market conditions.

Copyright © 2006-2014 Chris Ciovacco

All Images, XHTML Renderings, and Source Code Copyright © Safehaven.com

SEARCH





TRUE MONEY SUPPLY

Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/