Excessive Bullish Sentiment Meets Inflationary Pressures

By: Guy Lerner | Tue, Feb 22, 2011
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What happens when excessive bullish sentiment meets extreme conditions from our indicator constructed from the trends in the CRB Index, gold and yields on the 10 year Treasury?

It is the Will Robinson signal.

Essentially, this is a set of market conditions that should not be ignored. Of course, investors have been ignoring every danger sign for the past 3 months as prices could only go one way --up! One day does not make a trend, and the mini down day, that was brought about by the unrest in Egypt, was about the "best" buying opportunity in months. Nonetheless, for a numbers guy like myself looking to play the odds and averages, risk remains.

Figures 1 and 2 show the Will Robinson signals since 2004. These are the red dots over the price bars. The only real failure has been the recent signal from November, 2010.

Figure1. $INX/ weekly
$INX/ weekly

Figure2. $INX/ weekly
$INX/ weekly

 


 

Guy Lerner

Author: Guy Lerner

Guy M. Lerner
http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: Guy M. Lerner is the editor and founder of The Technical Take blog. His commentary on the financial markets is based upon information thought to be reliable and is not meant as investment advice. Under no circumstances does the information in his columns represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Lerner may on occasion hold positions in the securities mentioned in his columns and on the Web site; in all instances, all positions are fully disclosed at http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/. However, their positions may change at anytime. For more information on any of the above, please review The Technical Take's full Terms of Use and Privacy Policy (link below). While Lerner cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send your comments to: guy@thetechnicaltake.com.

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