Mapping the Critical 2011 Themes

By: Gordon Long | Wed, Mar 2, 2011
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Excerpted from 2011 Thesis Paper: Beggar-thy-Neighbor at Tipping Points


 

The conclusions of our "2011 Thesis - Beggar-thy-Neighbor" was that the world is on a glide path towards a global Fiat Currency Failure and the emergence of a New World Order. We are unclear whether it is planned or happenstance, but what the regularly conducted abstraction mapping process clearly indicates is that it is presently a high probability outcome.

The paper (which will be made available to non subscribers March 11th, 2011- sign-up) uses the Process of Abstraction to avoid the media noise, abstract the facts, synthesis key macro drivers and then arrive at the highest probability outcomes.

In the recent article "2011 Tipping Points" we laid out the 37 major Tipping Points we are presently tracking. These Tipping Points are show on the left hand side of the two charts below, which are the basis upon which our ongoing analysis process is conducted. These highly simplified representations of the process gives the reader a graphical perspective on what leads us to our conclusions.


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I - ERA OF CONFLICT & TENSION

Our process has been signaling an era of conflict and tension was ahead for over 18 months.  Our most recent analysis is showing this theme becoming much more pronounced and possibly accelerating.

DRIVER I: Debt Saturation

The Tipping Points of: 1-Sovereign Debt - PIIGS, 2- EU Banking Crisis, 3, Risk Reversal, 4-US State & Local Government, 6-Rising Inflation Pressures and Interest Rates, 8-Chronic Unemployment, 11-Residential Real Estate-Phase II, 12-Commercial Real Estate, 13-Public Policy Miscues (i.e. flawed fiscal & budget policy), 14- Oil Price Pressures, 15-Bond Bubble, 16 Pension-Entitlement Crisis and many more of our 37 Tipping Points are fundamentally about debt and credit. They are related in some fashion to the inability to service this debt and the problems which that incurs.

DRIVER II: Social Unrest

The Tipping Points of: 5-Food Price Pressures, 8-Chronic Unemployment, 6-Rising Interest Pressures and Interest Rates, 16-Pension-Entitlement Crisis 19-Credit Contraction II are just a few of the Tipping Points that are creating the underpinnings for the beginnings of Social Unrest in many countries and regions around the world.

CATALYST I: The combination of Debt Saturation and Social Unrest are the catalyst for:

THEME I: Currency Wars & Political Policies of 'Beggar-thy-Neighbor'

THEME II: Banking & Credit Crisis II

DRIVER III: Geo-Political Tensions

The Tipping Points of: 10-Geo-Political Events (such as presently seen throughout North Africa and the Middle East), 30-North and South Korea, 35-Iran Nuclear Ambitions, 33-Terrorist Threats and operating factions, all are creating Geo-Political Tensions. They appear to be broadening and touching all regions to various degrees.

DRIVER IV: Global Economic Income and Growth Imbalances

The Tipping Points such as: 31-US Fiscal, Trade & Account Imbalances, 24-Shrinking Revenue Growth Rates, 25-Global Output Gap, 17-Central and Eastern Europe, 9-China Bubble and 29-Slowing Retail & Consumer Sales are just some of the Tipping Points within Driver IV. The seriousness of global income and growth imbalances is continuously stressed by all economists as a central dilemma that must be addressed.

CATALYST II: The Social Unrest, Geo-Political Tensions and Global Economic & Income Imbalances drivers are the tinderbox for:

THEME III: A Collapsing Western (G7) Social Net

THEME IV: West-to-East Power Shift

RESULT:

A FIAT CURRENCY FAILURE

There are many indications that we are well along towards an evolving Fiat Currency Failure..


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II - NEW WEALTH CREATION & VALUE PROPOSITION

DRIVER V: Regionalization

The Tipping Points of: 1- Sovereign Debt-PIIGS, 2- EU Banking Crisis, 9-China Bubble, 10-Geo-Politcal Events (Middle East and North Africa), 12-Central & Eastern Europe, 20-Japan Debt Deflation, 27-US Reserve Currency and 26-US Dollar Weakness are indicators of increasing Regionalization around the world. Sovereign States are more and more becoming trading blocks for competitive advantage and economic survival.

DRIVER VI: Resource Shortages

The Tipping Points of: 5-Food Shortages, 14-Oil Pressures, 6-Rising Inflation Pressures coupled with an explosion in global Commodity prices is an indication of shortages. The world's population is growing rapidly along with elevated standards of living in the Emerging Markets. These are putting serious strains on global resources

DRIVER VII: Emerging Markets

The Tipping Points of: 31-US Fiscal, Trade and Account Balances, 26-US Dollar fears, the sustainability of 27- US Reserve Currency and other imbalances are driving the emergence of new players until the world stage. What was only recently the 'G5' center of power, is now the G20. The twice yearly G20 meeting now takes center stage in global issues.

CATALYST III: Regionalization, Resources Shortages and Emerging Markets

THEME V: Global Corporatocracy

CATALYST IV: Resource Shortages and Emerging Markets

Resources and Emerging Markets leads to Theme VI.

THEME VI: Shifting Value Creation

If we couple THEME: V - Global Corporatocracy withTHEME: III - Collapsing Western Social Net and THEME IV - West to East Power Shift we have the following directional result.

RESULT:

AN EMERGING NEW WORLD ORDER

Either by design & plan or just happenstance a new world order is on the horizon.

All of the above lead to an overall thesis of CHANGE in 2011 and 2012.

We delve into all the of the above in detail in our 2011 THESIS: BEGGAR-THY-NEIGHBOR.

sign-up for your free copy to be released to Non-Subscribers March 11, 2011.

"I care not who Rules but who controls the Money.

The REAL Power lies with who controls the Money!"

Nathaniel Rothschild


"The Banker wins in the Era of Corporatocracy"

 

Sign Up for the free 2011 Thesis Paper: Beggar-thy-Neighbor at Tipping Points.

 


 

Gordon Long

Author: Gordon Long

Gordon T. Long
Publisher - LONGWave

Gordon T. Long

Gordon T. Long has been publically offering his financial and economic writing since 2010, following a career internationally in technology, senior management & investment finance. He brings a unique perspective to macroeconomic analysis because of his broad background, which is not typically found or available to the public.

Mr. Long was a senior group executive with IBM and Motorola for over 20 years. Earlier in his career he was involved in Sales, Marketing & Service of computing and network communications solutions across an extensive array of industries. He subsequently held senior positions, which included: VP & General Manager, Four Phase (Canada); Vice President Operations, Motorola (MISL - Canada); Vice President Engineering & Officer, Motorola (Codex - USA).

After a career with Fortune 500 corporations, he became a senior officer of Cambex, a highly successful high tech start-up and public company (Nasdaq: CBEX), where he spearheaded global expansion as Executive VP & General Manager.

In 1995, he founded the LCM Groupe in Paris, France to specialize in the rapidly emerging Internet Venture Capital and Private Equity industry. A focus in the technology research field of Chaos Theory and Mandelbrot Generators lead in the early 2000's to the development of advanced Technical Analysis and Market Analytics platforms. The LCM Groupe is a recognized source for the most advanced technical analysis techniques employed in market trading pattern recognition.

Mr. Long presently resides in Boston, Massachusetts, continuing the expansion of the LCM Groupe's International Private Equity opportunities in addition to their core financial market trading platforms expertise. GordonTLong.com is a wholly owned operating unit of the LCM Groupe.

Gordon T. Long is a graduate Engineer, University of Waterloo (Canada) in Thermodynamics-Fluid Mechanics (Aerodynamics). On graduation from an intensive 5 year specialized Co-operative Engineering program he pursued graduate business studies at the prestigious Ivy Business School, University of Western Ontario (Canada) on a Northern & Central Gas Corporation Scholarship. He was subsequently selected to attend advanced one year training with the IBM Corporation in New York prior to starting his career with IBM.

Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

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