Oil's Surge Could Ruin Economic Recovery
The surge in the oil price due to the conflict in Libya and revolts in other MENA countries prompted me to ascertain the impact thereof on the world economy and especially the U.S. The most important factor regarding the global economy is consumer sentiment. When confidence wanes consumers are less inclined to spend. But what really has broken the back of consumer sentiment in the past?
Let us first take a look at oil. Looking at the history since 1980 it is evident that at times when the price of crude oil (Brent spot) moved significantly higher compared to prices a year previously, consumer sentiment started to weaken. The oil price spikes were all event driven.
1980 - Iran/Iraq war started
1990 - Iraq invasion of Kuwait
2001 - Britain and U.S. raids on Iraq
2008 - Great bear market squeeze
2011 - MENA uprisings.
Sources: I-Net; Conference Board; Plexus Asset Management.
But it is not always the case, though, as sometimes consumer sentiment rose despite rising oil prices.
Affordability of petroleum energy obviously plays a major role in consumer sentiment. To calculate this affordability I calculated the number of barrels of crude oil used to produce the monthly U.S. Total Gasoline All Sales/Deliveries by Prime Supplier as published by EIA by applying the conversion number of 42 gallons per barrels. The total was then multiplied by the spot price of Brent crude and expressed as a percentage of total retail sales.
Sources: I-Net; FRED; Plexus Asset Management.
My analysis indicates that although surges in oil prices on an affordability basis were sometimes responsible for consumer sentiment dipping, it is the Fed's foregoing monetary policy actions that eventually led to breaking the back of consumer confidence.
In the second half of 1987 the Fed started to tighten monetary policy by raising rates steadily as consumer sentiment improved. In March 1989 the Fed started to ease as consumer sentiment waned. The already weakening consumer sentiment was aggravated by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, which saw the oil price surging. In February 1994 the Fed again started to tighten monetary policy by raising its base rates as the improvement in consumer sentiment seemed sustainable. The final Fed hike in the cycle in June 2000 was followed by a surge in the oil price, which dented consumer sentiment only to be followed by 9/11. In the next cycle the Fed started to hike rates in the second half of 2004 through August 2007 as oil prices continued to surge. Consumer sentiment had already started to wane when speculative market actions led to a further blow-off in the oil price followed by the Lehman saga and subsequent Great Global Liquidity Crisis.
Sources: I-Net; Conference Board; Plexus Asset Management.
The bottom line is that in each of the previous economic cycles the Fed's actions eventually led to weaker consumer confidence, only to be aggravated by either an energy crisis or confidence crisis such as 9/11 or the Lehman saga.
A very interesting observation is how closely the affordability of oil prices as measured by my calculated U.S. crude oil consumption as percentage of retail sales has tracked the Conference Board's Consumer Sentiment Index since September 2008.
Sources: I-Net; Conference Board; Plexus Asset Management.
But what oil price levels can be tolerated by the U.S. economy before it will turn into a crisis and see consumer sentiment plummeting? I have used three constant Brent oil price scenarios against an assumption that monthly retail sales will grow by 5% on a year-ago basis:
High: $160 per barrel
Neutral: $120 per barrel
Low: $80 per barrel
Sources: I-Net; Conference Board; Plexus Asset Management.
With the current oil price close to the neutral scenario, it implies that oil affordability is already close to the 2008 all-time high. Furthermore, if the oil price remains at the current level it means that around 9% of retail sales will soon be spent on oil compared to around 6% in November last year or the equivalent of $10 billion more than in November. On an annualised basis it will detract approximately 0.9% from the annual nominal GDP!
But wait for it! Should the oil price rocket to the high scenario of $160 per barrel, around 12% of retail sales will be spent on oil - the equivalent of $20 billion more than in November and detract 1.7% from the annual nominal GDP. Yes, that would be a major crisis!
The impact on the U.S.'s real GDP is even worse due to the inflationary affect of the higher oil price. With shelter currently still in the doldrums my analysis indicates that the fit between the year-on-year U.S. CPI inflation rate ex shelter and changes in the oil price compared to a year ago since January 2007 is nearly perfect.
The current spot price of Brent crude of approximately $120 implies that the U.S. CPI ex shelter inflation rate is likely to move to 4% and higher in coming months if the oil price is maintained at this level. Assuming that shelter, which constitutes approximately 32% of the U.S. CPI, stays unchanged, it means the overall year-on-year CPI inflation rate will increase to 2.7%. A sustained level of Brent crude of $160 per barrel will take the year-on-year CPI ex shelter inflation rate to around 7% and overall CPI inflation to 4.5% if shelter remains unchanged.
Sources: I-Net; Bureau of Labor; Plexus Asset Management.
What does it mean for real U.S. GDP growth?
In the case of Brent crude staying unchanged at $120/barrel, my analysis indicates that year-on-year GDP growth could shave off nearly 1 to 1.5% of the headline number. In the case of $160/barrel, GDP growth will actually decline in real terms - threatening a double-dip recession.
Any sustained surge in the oil price in fact acts as additional taxes levied on the U.S. consumer. Although I previously argued that the Fed is likely to hike the Fed funds rate in the third quarter as a result of improved consumer sentiment, the current state of affairs in the oil market together with increased geopolitical tensions is likely to force the FOMC to delay such action. Recent calls by some Fed governors to suspend the buy-back program of treasuries are to my mind premature, especially in light of the significant threat of rising oil prices due to the MENA/Libyan situation.
Yes, I continue to treasure my gold bullion holdings. Perhaps it is time to buy some calls on U.S. bonds and puts on the S&P 500?
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Author: Prieur du Plessis
Dr Prieur du Plessis
investmentpostcards.com
With 25 years' experience in investment research and portfolio management, Dr Prieur du Plessis is one of the most experienced and well-known investment professionals in South Africa. More than 1 000 of his articles on investment-related topics have been published in various regular newspaper, journal and Internet columns. He also published a book, Financial Basics: Investment, in 2002.
He holds the following degrees: BSc (Quantity Surveying) (Cape Town), HonsB (B & A) (cum laude) (Stellenbosch), MBA (cum laude) (Stellenbosch); and DBA (Doctor of Financial Management) (Stellenbosch).
Prieur is chairman of the Plexus group of companies, which he founded in 1995. Previously he was general manager: portfolio management at Sanlam, responsible for the management of investment portfolios with total assets in excess of $5 billion.
Plexus is a pioneer in the mutual fund industry and has achieved a number of firsts under Prieur's leadership. These include the authoritative Plexus Survey, a quarterly analysis of the consistency of the performance of unit trust management companies, the Plexus Offshore Survey, the Plexus Unit Trust Indices, and the PlexCrown Fund Ratings.
Plexus is the South African partner of John Mauldin, American author of the most widely distributed investment newsletter in the world, and also has an exclusive licensing agreement with California-based Research Affiliates for managing and distributing its enhanced Fundamental Index™ methodology in the Pan-African area.
In 2001 Prieur received the Santam/AHI Business Leader of the Year award for corporate leadership, business acumen and entrepreneurial flair. He was also profiled in the book South Africa's Leading Managers (2006). Plexus received the AHI/Old Mutual Enterprise of the Year award in 1997 and was also included in the book South Africa's Most Promising Companies (2005).
Prieur is 52 years old and lives with his wife, TV producer and presenter Isabel Verwey, and two children in Welgemoed, Cape Town. His recreational activities include long-distance running, motor cycling and reading. He belongs to the Cape Town Club, Johannesburg Country Club, Gordon's Bay Yacht Club and Swiss Social & Sports Club.
Copyright © 2008-2012 Dr Prieur du Plessis
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