Gold May Shine No More in 2011

By: Smartpredictor | Thu, Mar 10, 2011
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On 1/26/11, Smartp Risk Model for Gold went on a BUY signal with Gold around 1309. The target specified was 1457 based on Elliott Wave analysis. Gold reached 1446 this week but based on the cycles analysis, it is in a critical TIME pivot or CIT zone of 3/9-3/14. Gold came in high into this zone and is at an imminent top for the Year 2011.

Our approach here at Smartpredictor is an objective one and we don't spew endless rhetoric but present pictures.

The Smartp Risk Model for Gold is undergoing a monthly degree crossover down, and hence issuing a SELL signal at monthly degree wave level. Also, looking at the model it is suggested that Gold may not exceed the March 2011 highs rest of the year. At this point we are expecting a minimum 19.8% correction suggesting that Gold will reach 1157 this year at the minimum. The worst case projection based on current model data is -29.5% but we will come back and revisit this analysis in coming months.


Smartpredictor methods attempt to unravel underlying cycles for any financial instrument utilizing proprietary algorithms. This helps visualize potential turning points for that instrument as well as an yearly roadmap. The Gold Cycles for 2011 are enclosed below. As usual TIME based pivots have no polarity of a high or a low and can be either based on how the market arrives into a CIT. We however assign some best case polarities to these CIT's as shown in the Gold cycles below.

2011 Gold Cycles

Good luck and happy trading!




Author: Smartpredictor


At Smartpredictor, we believe in a completely objective approach to the markets and our methods outlined here is a partial showcase of the same. Our flagship service is Smartpredictor system, a neural net based on Elliott Waves, Cycles and Mathematical Techniques. It is a 100% mechanical system that is capable of producing CIT (change-in-trend) for $SPX at the hourly, daily and monthly level. The neural also produces Price projections at these three degrees of cycles. Smartpredictor being a neural net is visual in nature, hence it gives an objective and look ahead approach to trading markets.

Smartp Risk Models is another objective approach in our arsenal and we use it in conjunction with our Smartpredictor neural net for validation and reinforcement. Smartp Risk Models are meant to track portfolio risk for the financial instrument at GSC/SC/Primary Cycle Degrees (9 months+). Since these models are statistical in nature, they can be produced for any asset (stocks, commodities on indices).

Smartp Cycles - Smartp methods can also reveal cycles for any stock, commodity and index for the current or future year as well. We will be showcasing this feature in a future article as well.

Please write to us if you would like more information about these methods or Smartpredictor in general please write to us at or visit us at These models assume that the direction is from BUY to SELL SHORT. Scale basically means risk to your longs or risk to your shorts in % terms.

Disclaimers - Smartp Risk Models are a statistical portfolio risk model built for educational purposes only and is not an investment advice or invitation to trade. All of the disclaimers pertaining to investing and trading based on Smartpredictor services or products apply as in here

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