Yield to Yields

By: Erik Swarts | Fri, Apr 8, 2011
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10 year yields are breaching their resistance trends this week. Whether the market pulls a 94', a 04' or something worse or in between is up to the larger powers that be. You could say the equity market titrated the inflation expectations of 2004 with very little collateral damage. In essence, it went sideways for a number of months within a narrow range. As described in my previous post, the equity markets did not respond as well in 1994 to the Feds more aggressive transition to fighting inflation expectations.

Based on the anecdotal remarks of Walmart's CEO and my heating oil salesman - the risk is towards a more contentious market in the intermediate time frame.

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Erik Swarts

Author: Erik Swarts

Erik Swarts
Market Anthropology

Although I am an active trader, I have always taken a broad perspective when approaching the markets. I respect the Big Picture and attempt to place each piece of information within its appropriate context and timeframe. I have found that without this approach, there is very little understanding of ones expectations in the market and an endless potential for risk.

I am not a stock picker - but trade the broader market itself in varying timeframes. I want to know which way the prevailing wind is blowing, where the doldrums can be expected and where the shoals will likely rise. I will not claim to know which vessel is the fastest or most comfortable for passage - but I can read the charts and know the risks.

I am not a salesperson for the market and its many wares. I observe it, contextualize its moving parts - both visible and discrete - and interpret.

I practice Market Anthropology - Welcome to my notes.

Erik Swarts is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content be used or interpreted as a recommendation for any investment, trade or approach to the markets. Trading and investing can be hazardous to your wealth. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. All opinions expressed by Mr. Swarts are subject to change without notice, and the reader should always obtain current information and perform their own due diligence before making any investment or trading decision.

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