It has been over 3 months since I identified the potential for a "very
strong move" in crude oil. Absurdly low interest rates and geopolitical
unrest are the likely culprits, and the last time I looked, these issues
remain with us. In addition, the technicals, which we will review in this
article, remain very constructive.
Figure 1 is a monthly chart of West Texas Crude, cash data. Prices remain
within a well described up channel. $120 seems like a reasonable price target.
In terms of sell signals (i.e., the presence of multiple negative divergence
bars), I don't see any on the horizon.
Figure 1. WTI/ monthly
Figure 2 is a weekly chart of the United States Oil Fund (symbol: USO). Three
weeks ago, prices "broke out" from a fairly substantial base. In the last two
weeks, prices have pulled back to several times to re-test that support level
or "breakout" point. I would expect USO to hold above $42.
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