Part II: The Market Message from the Volatility Index (VIX) ...
Yesterday, we closed by saying that investors should put 14.27 and 16.42 on their VIX radar during the next few days. Yesterday, the VIX closed at 16.70, so that was 0.28 points above our 16.42 radar level.
So, today we address what that means.
Since we broke through the 16.42 threshold yesterday, so does that mean we hit turbulence now, have a new spike up, or see the VIX make set a new high over March 16th's level?
If you look at today's VIX chart, you can see the spike up on March 16th. If you look again, you can see that we have been in a down trend since then, because the VIX has made lower/highs and lower/lows. So, technically, the VIX is still in a down trend until we make a higher/high followed by a confirming higher/low.
But that doesn't tell us about the short term. What could one expect to see?
Short term, the bias is for a higher VIX movement. Medium term, the VIX still has a bias for a lower VIX movement since it is in a technical down trend.
For now, our 16.42 resistance was taken out yesterday, and we have a short term bias to move higher.
So, the expectation is for higher VIX movement in the next few days. The most important VIX levels right now are 19.40 on today's chart, and then followed by anything above a VIX level of 20. Above 20 would change the medium term bias to an even higher VIX movement probability.
Bottom line: Short term, the bias is for more VIX up movement during the next few days. If the VIX has a close above 19.40 to 20, then the medium term bias will shift toward more up movement on the VIX. Since the VIX moves opposite to the market, it is saying that the market is now under pressure and will move lower.
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