The State of the Trend

By: George Krum | Sat, Jun 11, 2011
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Last week the conclusion was that, given the oversold nature of the market, channel support at 1283 and 1276 will hold. The intraweek low came in at 1277 and 1276 held until 15:40 pm. on Friday.

The daily trend continues to be down, and 1250 seems to be a done deal.

Trends Analysis
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Looking at the weekly chart however, 1240 is the key level that needs to hold in order for the weekly uptrend to stay alive.

Trends Analysis
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Switching over to the monthly chart, QE 1&2 have propelled this market on a trajectory similar to the 1996-200 rally. Given the state of the economy and monetary policy, absent QE3, that trend does not seem sustainable. Left to its own devices, the SP500 projects down to 990, 839, and ultimately - 600.

Trends Analysis
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What is the likely range for next week then? For that we turn to the Channel chart. The answer, not surprisingly, is 1255-1245 on the downside.




George Krum

Author: George Krum

George Krum

George Krum is the author of the "CIT Dates" blog, and the following apps:

OddsTrader - combines the power of Hurst Channels with proper risk and position size management. For a web version see OT Signals below.

Gann 9 - the only financial app that allows users to effortlessly apply the legendary W.D. Gann's tools and methods for trading (including the Square of 9).

OT Trend - helps you quantify and forecast the seemingly random ebb and flow of stock, index or mutual fund movement.

OT Fibonacci - automates the process of applying Fibonacci numbers, ratios and time series to any security.

OT Seasonal - allows you to perform seasonal analysis on practically any security from around the world, and to build long-term forecasts and models.

OT Pairs - pairs trading, one of the most successful hedge fund trading strategies, is now available on your smart phone.

OT Pivots - combines the power of pivot lines with cycles to provide you with concise technical analysis and powerful trading signals.

OT Signals - a web app accessible from any browser, tablet or pc. It gives buy/sell/hold ratings for any instrument from around the world, and defines the trend and support/resistance levels.

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