The State of the Trend
Last week the conclusion was that, given the oversold nature of the market, channel support at 1283 and 1276 will hold. The intraweek low came in at 1277 and 1276 held until 15:40 pm. on Friday.
The daily trend continues to be down, and 1250 seems to be a done deal.
Looking at the weekly chart however, 1240 is the key level that needs to hold in order for the weekly uptrend to stay alive.
Switching over to the monthly chart, QE 1&2 have propelled this market on a trajectory similar to the 1996-200 rally. Given the state of the economy and monetary policy, absent QE3, that trend does not seem sustainable. Left to its own devices, the SP500 projects down to 990, 839, and ultimately - 600.
What is the likely range for next week then? For that we turn to the Channel chart. The answer, not surprisingly, is 1255-1245 on the downside.