Monthly DJIA Update: 5/30/03 & 4/28/78

By: Gerald Hoopes | Fri, Oct 29, 2004
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Here's an update of the 4th Monthly DJIA line chart in my August 31, 2003 communication:

Last year I reported that the Monthly DJIA time paths preceding the 8 deep Monthly DJIA Coppock Curve buy signal dates since 1950 pair off into 4 patterns. Given that 3 of those 4 pairs also comprise POST-signal time path pattern pairs, I wondered if the latest post-signal time path would similarly pair off, after the signal, with its pre-signal partner. I decided to wait, watch, and report the outcome.

Here is how things stand: For 5/30/03 and 4/28/78 to comprise a post-signal pattern pair the Monthly DJIA must show a net downside bias from 5/30/03 to 5/30/05, roughly tracking its 4/28/78 to 4/30/80 path. A good course of action in this regard would have been for the green time path to oscillate around the coral time path with the same greater amplitude and same lower frequency it exhibited pre-5/30/03. Instead it rose strongly for many months, showing an even greater amplitude and even lower frequency than before. For the two time paths to remain a pattern pair now the green one must nosedive. I estimate that a DJIA drop into (or through) the 8,000 neighborhood by the end of May 2005 (at the absolute latest) is required to preserve the pattern pair.

Given the findings obtained by transforming the Coppock Curve, as presented in my June 1, 2004 communication, there is reason to believe that the latest pattern pair, unlike the other three, is a pair merely by default, and that any DJIA drop to 8,000 would simply be a coincidence. I will continue to update until my curiosity is satisfied one way or the other.


 

Author: Gerald Hoopes

Gerald Hoopes

An explanation of the Coppock Curve can be found at How to Calculate the Coppock Curve. An archive of Geralds comments can be found in the forums at www.longwaves.net.

This analysis is for academic purposes only and must not be construed as investment or trading advice.

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