Dollar Index: Constructive, but...

By: Guy Lerner | Tue, Jul 12, 2011
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Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the Dollar Index (symbol: $DXY), and it is the same chart I have been showing for weeks. Not surprisingly, this week's break above the downsloping trend line coincides with weakness in equities. The 74.62 key pivot becomes our new level of support.

Figure 1. $DXY/ weekly
$DXY/ weekly

The price action for the Dollar has been constructive from the bottoming process to the recent consolidation. But resistance is looming overhead, and it is rather significant suggesting that a break above these levels would deal a crushing blow to equities, which seem to trade in the opposite direction of the Dollar Index. This resistance can be seen in figure 2, a weekly chart of the Dollar Index, and it is defined by the following hurdles: 1) the 40 week moving average; 2) the key pivot at 76.28; 3) the up sloping orange trendline, which represents the prior breakdown point.

Figure 2. $DXY/ weekly
$DXY/ weekly

In sum, the price action in the Dollar Index is very constructive. Resistance remains significant and a break above would likely coincide with equity weakness.

 


 

Guy Lerner

Author: Guy Lerner

Guy M. Lerner
http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: Guy M. Lerner is the editor and founder of The Technical Take blog. His commentary on the financial markets is based upon information thought to be reliable and is not meant as investment advice. Under no circumstances does the information in his columns represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Lerner may on occasion hold positions in the securities mentioned in his columns and on the Web site; in all instances, all positions are fully disclosed at http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/. However, their positions may change at anytime. For more information on any of the above, please review The Technical Take's full Terms of Use and Privacy Policy (link below). While Lerner cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send your comments to: guy@thetechnicaltake.com.

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