Market Outlook: Rebound, Maybe, But the Low Might Not Be in Yet

By: Peter Pan | Sun, Aug 7, 2011
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SHORT-TERM: EXPECT REBOUND SOON, BUT REBOUND, IF ANY, IS SELL

Still the old cliche, rebound, maybe, but such a rebound most likely is a sell opportunity.

I've mentioned lots of evidences in 08/04 Market Outlook arguing for a rebound. They become even more extreme after the Friday session, so will maintain the conclusion that a sizeable rebound could be within 3 trading days (starting from 08/05). Listed below are all the extremes I mentioned recently. Among them, the T2122 is newly added which I hope you still remember is my ultimate weapon for watching oversold and overbought. It's not there yet, but close, worth paying attention now.

T2122
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T2116
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NYMO
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Sentiment Indicators at Extremes

I've been blah blah in almost all my recent Market Outlook about the law of inertia, arguing such a strong push down, usually the very first rebound would fail. My main argument so far is NYMO missing positive divergence. Today, I'd like you to meet my 3 other witnesses:

3 Push Down
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VIX

VIX

VIX

VIX

SPY

SPY

SPY

SPY

SPY

SPY

SPY

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: CONCEPT ONLY, THE WORSE CASE SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 1,000

I have no solid evidences to talk you into believing some scary intermediate-term target. The chart below is concept only. Generally, most big pullbacks in a bull market ended at BB mid line. We're now at such a general target and if the market cannot hold here, then the next target would be the BB bottom which is around SPX 1,000.

SPX Monthly
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SEASONALITY: BEARISH FIRST 9 TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST

See 07/29 Market Outlook for more details. Also please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 3 SELL    
Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 3 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term DOWN 4 of 6 *NEUTRAL  

  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly *DOWN 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): SOX lags, be careful.
IWM & Weekly DOWN  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly *DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN 1.5.9 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold.
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN  
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly *DOWN  
XLE & Weekly *DOWN *4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold.
XLF & Weekly DOWN *4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Testing long term support, critical time.
IYR & Weekly DOWN 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): XHB lags, be careful.
XLB & Weekly DOWN  

 


 

Author: Peter Pan

Peter (Yong) Pan
Cobra's Market View

Peter is the author of www.cobrasmarketview.com and several none-English web sites.

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Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/