I have been wondering when we would start to see stories like this.
The headline: "Morgan
Stanley cuts global growth forecasts". If only they were reading TheTechnicalTake
or employing a price based approach, they certainly would be ahead of the
curve. I know "technical analysis" is considered voodoo, but maybe I practice
a different kind of medicine! I don't think it is luck (but you never know
-- do you?) or due to my "superior" (definitely not) ability to "read the
tea leaves". What I do well is apply the same objective analysis to the price
movements regardless of asset.
So for the record on June 24, 2011 I wrote "Call
This a Warning Sign" on the high likelihood of a top in the i-Shares
MSCI Emerging Market Index (symbol: EEM). Figure 1 is a monthly chart of
EEM, and this is consistent with a market top.
Figure 1. EEM/monthly
So for the record on July 18, 2011 I wrote "Another
Warning Sign" on the high likelihood of a bear market in the i-Shares
FTSE China 25 (symbol: FXI). Figure 2 is a weekly chart of FXI, and the analysis
is still the same. Bear market.
Figure 2. FXI/ weekly
Lastly and for the record on August 14, 2011 I wrote "Dr.
Copper and Global Economy Look Vulnerable". Bingo! I am glad Morgan Stanley
agrees with my analysis. Not really. I could care less. I do my own thing.
In summary, a price based approach to navigating the financial markets remains
an effective form of market analysis.
Disclaimer: Guy M. Lerner is the editor and founder
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