Credit Markets Signal Growing Economic Weakness
If you trade beyond a one minute chart then following the credit markets will give one much more insight into overall market direction and economic reality. Unlike equities which have failed to identify the most current and past recession credit markets have been signaling economic weakness for months.
As the macro data has deteriorated faster so to have the credit markets as shown by the multiple charts below. Even in the face of Fed intervention via QE credit markets remain the closest thing to a free market the US has and one where true price discovery is found.
5 Year Swap Spreads
For those unsure of this product a swap spread is a product used to convert an adjustable rate business credit into a fixed rate (and vice versa). When the economy weakens interest rates fall resulting in less demand to switch to a fixed rate, thus falling swap rates.
Corporate Bond Yields
Rates already at multi year lows have really rolled over recently as the economic data has deteriorated at an accelerated pace.
Federal Funds Effective Rate
The Fed sets a Federal Funds target rate, currently 0-25 basis points but the actual rate banks charge one another to borrow overnight is the effective or actual rate. Currently at 9-10 basis points (0.09-0.1%) one can appreciate how loose Fed monetary policy has been relative to the past 10 years. With rates so low it speaks volumes to the structural problems within the US economy as monetary policy has done nothing to fuel growth.
Commercial Paper
Unsecured short term financing used primarily for accounts receivable, inventory and working capital needs. Rates for both financial and non financial are at multi year lows and have been trending lower since June of 2010 another sign of a weakening economy as the need for commercial paper falls.
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