This is Bullish
It's an ugly morning. The markets are a sea of red. The current overbought condition within the context of a bear market is doing what one would expect -- sell off. This is a bear market and we are suppose to "sell the rips" until it doesn't work anymore. But there is an exception to the bear market theme, and it is the NASDAQ100. See figure 1, a weekly chart.
Figure 1. NASDAQ100/ weekly
The close above a prior key pivot point (the red and black dots) is bullish. Key pivot points are the best areas of buying (support) and selling (resistance), and last week prices closed above a key pivot point (or resistance area) at 2197.94 on the NSADAQ100. See blue up arrow on figure 1. Per my methodology, this is bullish.
Several weeks ago I stated: "A weekly closure above this level would have me reconsidering my bear market "call" at least as it concerns the NASDAQ 100". So yes, last week's price action is constructive for the NASDAQ100, but the rest of the market remains in a bear market. SP500 is in a bear market. Small caps are in a bear market. Key sectors such as financials and emerging markets are in bear markets. China remains in a bear market. The NASDAQ100 is the lone standout.
Can the NASDAQ100 go at it alone? It doesn't seem likely, but a strong tech sector is always important for a sustainable rally. More importantly, it is better to ask the question: why is the NASDAQ100 the lone standout? And to answer this, you don't have to look further than Amazon (symbol: AMZN) and Apple (symbol: AAPL). The NASDAQ100 is cap weighted index, and I suspect these 2 stocks are primarily responsible for driving this index higher. AMZN hit an all time high last week and AAPL is approaching those highs.
While these insights don't invalidate my signal, I would like to see confirmation from the rest of the market that the bearish underpinnings are subsiding. At this point in time, the price action in the NASDAQ100 is constructive, but the rest of the market remains in a bear market, and barring some Hail Mary by the Fed -- and this is possible -- I suspect that it is going to take more than a couple of weeks to reverse this bear market action.
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