Monday September 19, 2011
Here is an update of the daily Silver/Nasdaq 2000 analog from last weeks note (see Here). This chart was created intraday ~ 10:30 EST 9/19. This analog puts a target for SLV ~ 36 for this week.
Wednesday August 31, 2011
Below is a series of the same study in different timeframes. It is a correlation study of the US dollar versus the euro. As you can see quite clearly in the daily chart - when the euro was first introduced in 1992 it took about 10 years for it to develop it's strong and steady inverse correlation with the US currency. Post 2002, it is quite rare to see that relationship weaken. We are currently coming through one of those periods on the monthly timeframe and in one of those periods on the weekly timeframe.
My best guess is it marks an inflection point for both currencies.
Monday August 29, 2011
A potential green shoot for the bulls here is high yield funds have performed quite well since the crash. In fact they have practically retraced the entire move.
Here is a price structure comparison of the 1987 crash to where we sit today. This analog would be weakened if the market exceeds the
August 15th close of 1204.49.
Tuesday August 16, 2011
Monday August 15, 2011
Friday August 12, 2011
Remember when everyone in May and June was pointing out that the VIX seemed artificially compressed - that it just wasn't acting the part. There was a weakness and distribution in equities, but without any corresponding volatility. Investors were selling premium into that weakness without much skepticism that it would continue. That market psychology was another clue to what came around the corner this month.
Thursday August 4, 2011
With so much attention keenly focused on treasury yields today, here is a chart contrasting the baby reflation in the beginning of the previous decade verses it's quantitative cousin - the great reflation. More to come in what this could mean for the market in my notes later on today.
Tuesday July 19, 2011
The week is still quite young - but one thing I am keeping an eye on as we walk towards Friday is if the weekly stochastic continues to exhibit a pivot lower. My suspicion is if it does - the market will eventually have a a print in the 1220s before reevaluating its options. Of course what is even more troubling from a long term perspective is the broadness of a possible top and its parallels to the 2007 market.
Monday July 11, 2011
Blinded by bias - or just a continuation of what was started. Chart created post-close for today. From earlier in the year, see (here).
Monday July 11, 2011
Here's a glimpse of what's on my mind. It appears Spain's downside leveraged potential is significant - as compared to today's tail risk de jour - Italy.
Thursday July 7, 2011
Here is an intraday update from around 10:30 EST of a credit market proxy I keep an eye on. It has been retracing a bit this week - while the market has continued to remain constructive towards the upside.
FCT is a close ended fixed income fund that primarily invests in senior floating rate loans made to mid tier corporate borrowers. Its utility on my screen has been to appraise credit risk sensitivity. For more context - see (here).