Chart Lab

By: Erik Swarts | Mon, Sep 19, 2011
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Monday September 19, 2011

Here is an update of the daily Silver/Nasdaq 2000 analog from last weeks note (see Here). This chart was created intraday ~ 10:30 EST 9/19. This analog puts a target for SLV ~ 36 for this week.

Nasdaq/Silver - Analog Study
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Wednesday August 31, 2011

Below is a series of the same study in different timeframes. It is a correlation study of the US dollar versus the euro. As you can see quite clearly in the daily chart - when the euro was first introduced in 1992 it took about 10 years for it to develop it's strong and steady inverse correlation with the US currency. Post 2002, it is quite rare to see that relationship weaken. We are currently coming through one of those periods on the monthly timeframe and in one of those periods on the weekly timeframe.

My best guess is it marks an inflection point for both currencies.

Euro : Dollar
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Monday August 29, 2011

A potential green shoot for the bulls here is high yield funds have performed quite well since the crash. In fact they have practically retraced the entire move.

Performance Chart - HYV  vs SPX
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Here is a price structure comparison of the 1987 crash to where we sit today. This analog would be weakened if the market exceeds the

August 15th close of 1204.49.

RSI 1987 vs 2011 Charts
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Tuesday August 16, 2011

SLV Hourly
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SLV Hourly
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Monday August 15, 2011

Analog Study 2008 SLV & 2011 SLV
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Analog Study 2008 SLV & 2011 SLV
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Friday August 12, 2011

Remember when everyone in May and June was pointing out that the VIX seemed artificially compressed - that it just wasn't acting the part. There was a weakness and distribution in equities, but without any corresponding volatility. Investors were selling premium into that weakness without much skepticism that it would continue. That market psychology was another clue to what came around the corner this month.

SPX VIX Weekly
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Thursday August 4, 2011

With so much attention keenly focused on treasury yields today, here is a chart contrasting the baby reflation in the beginning of the previous decade verses it's quantitative cousin - the great reflation. More to come in what this could mean for the market in my notes later on today.

10 Year Yields TNX SPX
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Tuesday July 19, 2011

The week is still quite young - but one thing I am keeping an eye on as we walk towards Friday is if the weekly stochastic continues to exhibit a pivot lower. My suspicion is if it does - the market will eventually have a a print in the 1220s before reevaluating its options. Of course what is even more troubling from a long term perspective is the broadness of a possible top and its parallels to the 2007 market.

Fibonacci Retracements 2000-2007
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Price Structure - SPX
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Monday July 11, 2011

Blinded by bias - or just a continuation of what was started. Chart created post-close for today. From earlier in the year, see (here).

Price Structure - SPX
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Monday July 11, 2011

Here's a glimpse of what's on my mind. It appears Spain's downside leveraged potential is significant - as compared to today's tail risk de jour - Italy.

Performance - EWI CRB EWQ EWP SPX
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Thursday July 7, 2011

Here is an intraday update from around 10:30 EST of a credit market proxy I keep an eye on. It has been retracing a bit this week - while the market has continued to remain constructive towards the upside.

FCT is a close ended fixed income fund that primarily invests in senior floating rate loans made to mid tier corporate borrowers. Its utility on my screen has been to appraise credit risk sensitivity. For more context - see (here).

FCT SPX Hourly
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Chart Lab Archive - See Here

 


 

Erik Swarts

Author: Erik Swarts

Erik Swarts
Market Anthropology

Although I am an active trader, I have always taken a broad perspective when approaching the markets. I respect the Big Picture and attempt to place each piece of information within its appropriate context and timeframe. I have found that without this approach, there is very little understanding of ones expectations in the market and an endless potential for risk.

I am not a stock picker - but trade the broader market itself in varying timeframes. I want to know which way the prevailing wind is blowing, where the doldrums can be expected and where the shoals will likely rise. I will not claim to know which vessel is the fastest or most comfortable for passage - but I can read the charts and know the risks.

I am not a salesperson for the market and its many wares. I observe it, contextualize its moving parts - both visible and discrete - and interpret.

I practice Market Anthropology - Welcome to my notes.

Erik Swarts is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content be used or interpreted as a recommendation for any investment, trade or approach to the markets. Trading and investing can be hazardous to your wealth. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. All opinions expressed by Mr. Swarts are subject to change without notice, and the reader should always obtain current information and perform their own due diligence before making any investment or trading decision.

Copyright © 2011-2014 Erik Swarts

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