Australian Dollar Wyckoff 2.0 Review
Let's review the Aussie dollar ETF (FXA) with Hurst cycles, Gann Angles and Wyckoff phase analysis, we call this Wyckoff 2.0 review.
Readers of the blog have seen the long term cycle of the Aussie dollar ETF many times. The cycle clearly told us to expect a cycle top mid 2011. Check: Done! (subject to QE3,4,5). To profit from the expected price reversal look more closely at price action.
This is how the Wyckoff phase analysis looks to us. We have added a short term Hurst dominant cycle to monitor current market turns. The phase named "Last Point of Supply" was the first time price failed to make new highs and also failed at bearish Gann Angle. This was the first short trade opportunity. The phase known as "Backing Onto ice" is another chance. Of course the world can change this analysis, QE's, sudden burst of great economic numbers out of China or Australia etc. Also we don't look at the Aussie dollar on its own, we also complete intermarket analysis of the risk on and risk off trade. We always hold a very wide market opinion that includes fundamental analysis (shock horror). We believe next several weeks will be very interesting for the risk on trade.
US Dollar Gann Angle Trend Study: The US Dollar is important inverse to the Aussie dollar.
Made in China: Aussie dollar is a 'canary in the coal mine' for China's economic performance.
China bears speaking up: True, but timing needs help.
Wyckoff 2.0 Review on Copper: Australia exports copper.
Short the Aussie and Kiwi dollar: No China stimulus no elevated Australasian economies.
Gann Angles show trend strength. The best thing about Gann angles is that they require only ONE PIVOT to draw. Trendlines require two, and is subject to adjustments as the second pivot points re price's. The Gann Angle picture is great for trade setup planning. We are watching and waiting.