Investing Wisely -- Something to Ponder and Personalized Support / Direction
Something to Ponder:
In this posting, I would like to share with you several compelling reasons to be a strong Bear - NOW!
Often I re-cap the week beginning either Friday evening, Saturday or Sunday morning in my "Sunday Commentary - Update." I believe my opinions, warnings and alerts are best shared after I do a very complete "Weekly Market Review." Well, I did just that again for what sometimes seems to be the one millionth time, over the past 36 hours and it is getting more and more scary. Nothing supports a Bullish Strategy and even the strength of having an UP Week, last week, offers no support for the Bulls.
Fundamentally and Economically I read the following from what I consider a well respected commentator. Here is what he said - (just for Friday's Market): "There was no shortage of very bearish news from EU banks selling 300 billion in Italian debt which the ECB has been helping to keep prices high in the secondary market to facilitate this unload. Germany has been talking more about involuntary exits from the Euro. Slovakia's PM today said a break up of the EU may be needed. The IMF said the global economy is headed for recession. Greece is shut off from trade due to counter-party risk (where did we hear that word before) and is now buying oil from Iran. I can go on but won't."
My personal list of fundamental and Economic Negatives is 10 times as long and goes far beyond Europe. (That - " NEWS" is being, as usual, controlled by the Media - those "RATS" and you are not being given the full / complete picture of the World's Economic mess.) The Emerging Markets (BRIC Countries) Brazil, Russia, India, China are touted as being "wonderful" investments. Believe me they are not "Wonderful" at all. Asia is not even in the news - lately. It will be! Note Above: Europe has been declared by the IMF - International Monetary Fund as heading back into a recession! Compelling? It Should Be to YOU, and I Hope it IS!
I suggest you re-read the past several weeks of my contributions - below.
The word "Set-Up" is one you likely have not heard used by me in a very long time. Last week was a perfect 'set-up' for the Pull Backs to begin in earnest.
My Commentaries are always based on the Dynamics of the Marketplace. Unfortunately, that means looking at the Technical Analysis (Charts) side of the market. As a doctor of Economics / Finance, I have always wished that there was a way to present an economic / financial picture in a dynamic format. So far, with over 50 years if trying, I still cannot even come close. So I use the "Numbers" and "Data" to track what is going on in the Marketplace. Actually, I have found a way to be even more accurate in my analytics than using the Fundamental and Economic stuff. Compelling? It Should Be to YOU, and I Hope it IS!
On the Fundamental Analysis side - it is simple -- Earnings are heading South!
On the Consensus Analysis side - it is also simple -- It has been negative for months.
I am making some changes to my personal / private blog. You might what to follow along for a time to get a feeling for my analytics. I can assure you that you will be positively surprised at what I have to say, a few times per week.
Just something to ponder . . . From an old fox!
Three articles supporting my "Three Pillars" of my Investment Methodology
that you may want to read: (the title for each is at the end of the below
# 1. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/119898-my-rotation-model-a-short-explanation
# 2. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/120955-my-shb-cycle-a-short-explanation
# 3. http://www.safehaven.com/article/22158/inflection-points-a-short-explanation
I would appreciate you also reading my more complete Bio. - I offer very strong / accurate opinions to be sure we are at least a little compatible in our investment philosophy. Please use this URL for my Bio: http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer
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Thank you so very much for your time in reading my "stuff." It is conservative,
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Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",