The State of the Trend

By: George Krum | Sun, Nov 27, 2011
Print Email

You know that a market is in trouble, when it can't even muster a solid dead-cat bounce despite oversold market internals. Something we've been witnessing a lot lately with the SP500:

And if the recent past is any guide, there is a lot more selling to follow. This should come as no surprise as the European financial crisis continues to spin out of control.

S&P Weekly Chart
Larger Image

From a weekly cycle perspective, however, there are still glimmers of hope. The composite weekly cycle is flatlining, since the longer-term cycles are still pointing up, while the shorter-term cycles are pointing down. If that doesn't change, the result should be a double bottom.* You can monitor these cycles yourself for any stock with the OddsTrader app:

Next weekly channel support is at 1145 and 1090.

In order to find a silver lining, one needs to dig deeper into longer-term, historical trends. Although the SP500 is lagging behind the pace of the 1994-2000 rally, it is still doing better than the 2002-2007 rally:

S&P Weekly Chart
Larger Image

 

* See J. M. Hurst, The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing, p. 57.

 


 

George Krum

Author: George Krum

George Krum
www.citdates.blogspot.com

George Krum is the author of the "CIT Dates" blog, and the following apps available from iTunes:

OddsTrader - uses the power of Hurst Channels to produce price and time targets, and combines them with proper risk and position size management.

OT Trend - helps you quantify and forecast the seemingly random ebb and flow of stock, index or mutual fund movement.

OT Fibonacci - automates the process of applying Fibonacci numbers, ratios and time series to any security.

OT Seasonal - allows you to perform seasonal analysis on practically any security from around the world and to build long-term forecasts and models.

OT Pairs - is the first mobile app that gives users access to one of the most profitable and time tested hedge fund trading strategies.

OT Pivots - combines the power of Pivot lines with cycles and automatic signal generation.

Gann 9 - is the only financial app that allows users to effortlessly apply the legendary W.D. Gann's tools and methods for trading (including the Square of 9).

Copyright © 2011-2014 George Krum

All Images, XHTML Renderings, and Source Code Copyright © Safehaven.com

SEARCH





TRUE MONEY SUPPLY

Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/