The short-term time frame is definitely bullish but a short-term pause is approaching.
The trend has reversed from down to up and since:
- Good news are now been released.
- EU Government spreads are dropping.
- The structure of the down leg off the October peak is corrective while the current violent move can evolve into an impulse up.
- "Everybody" is underweight equity.
- Bullish seasonality until the first week of January
- Etc .....
Reasons for a short term pause:
- Yesterday's SPX Spinning Top.
- Negative divergence in the McClellan oscillator and the NYSE adv-dec Volume.
We have an eod print above the 0.618 retracement and at the last "bearish trend line.
Next resistance is at 1256.55 then there is thin air up to the the 200 dsma = 1265
Support is located at 20 dsma = 1227 then the overlap line at 1215
The "rebound" off last Friday's lod, with one more push up, will become impulsive.
A fiver up will "guarantee" at least one more similar up leg.
If impulsive then it will strengthen the option of a Zig Zag vs the Triangle idea discussed yesterday.
Short Term EWP:
Yesterday's sideways action should be "translated" as a consolidation that should allow for today more upside.
I think that price is either tracing an Ending Diagonal wave (5) or a Triangle wave (4):
The assumed continuation pattern is probably induced by the expectation of a positive surprise from today's NFP.
I suspect that an initial bullish reaction should evolve into eod weakness.
Once the "projected" fiver is done it is reasonable to expect 2-3 days pullback but since this move has caught the majority by surprise we should expect that dip buyers would get nervous of missing more upside pretty quickly.
But first, lets see where price stops and then we will look at the retracement.
Keep in mind that next week we have ECB meeting, EU summit meeting then on Dec 13 FOMC day.
And I have the feeling that this time an Euro crisis deal is in the cards.
Have a great weekend.