Weekly Analysis

By: TheWaveTrading | Sun, Dec 4, 2011
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Family has kept me away from the screens so this weekly analysis is going to be much shorter then usually.

This weekend I have to begin with a 15 min time frame chart, since price has made a big statement with an impulsive up leg.


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This impulsive move has the following implications:

  1. We have to expect either one more up leg (similar in size) or a larger 5 - wave move.
  2. We have the confirmation that the pullback off the October peak has been a corrective 3-wave down leg therefore we have the guarantee that the move off the October 4 low is not over yet.


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Therefore we should have 2 potential EW patterns from the October 4 low:

1. Zig Zag = ABC

If the current move traces an impulsive 5 -wave up leg.

The extension (1x1) target is at 1377


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2. Triangle wave (B)

If price traces only one more up leg.


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Long Term EWP

I maintain the long-term 2 options already discussed in the past although for the time being it is just a guess, which one is going to play out.


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And given the corrective price structure that price is atm obeying I add a large Triangle wave (B) option that would probably need the entire 2012 to develop.


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It is obvious that the larger time frame pattern is still up in the air so I am more interested in the short term.

Short Term Set Up

It is clearly bullish.

Friday's Shooting Star is warning that the impulsive up leg off 1158 is completed. Therefore we have to expect a pullback that could last 2-3days

The target box for the pullback has a range 1226-1210


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Next week we have critical events with ECB meeting on Thursday and the EC summit in Friday.

 


 

TheWaveTrading

Author: TheWaveTrading

TheWaveTrading

Contact: If you would like to contact the author, you can e-mail him at thewavetrading@gmail.com

The main objective of this project is to share my views on several markets and asset classes.

In the initial stage TWT website will be a free service.

My main focus will be the equity market with SPX being the leader but I will also follow US equity sectors, major European indices, fixed income, currencies and commodities markets.

My analysis is based upon traditional Technical Analysis, Elliot Wave guidelines and investor sentiment.

My goal is to establish the most likely path that the price of a particular asset will undertake and profit through ETF instruments both on the long and short side and mainly with leveraged ones (2 x & 3 x).

The advantage of ETF investments is that it allows getting involved in equity indices & sectors, currencies, fixed income, commodities etc.

Therefore the main purpose of TWT will be to establish investment strategies regardless if the market is in an up trend or in a down trend, leveraging the chosen scenario while managing the risk by establishing protective stop losses.

Hence I will always define the risk, I will try to let winners run the wave and I will cut the losses if my strategy is wrong.

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Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/