As random as their movements may seem on an hourly basis - the market's structure
has a message inscribed. They are never random walks - but machinations intended
to reward the few at the expense of the majority.
I believe the equity markets are about to audible on those of us anticipating
the next shoe to drop in the sovereign debt crisis. What is interesting from
the perspective of balance, price structure and momentum, is the market has
been trading very similar to the early Spring tape when a
certain esteemed economist capitulated practically at the top of the market.
Over the coming sessions, I expect the SPX to find a low ~ 1212 before changing
into the jolly old St. Nick - just in time for Christmas. From the perspective
of balance, it's seems fitting that this stage of the crisis would be bookended
by a similar blow-off move. The market's structure and momentum as expressed
in the stochastic indicators exhibits a strong congruency to this Spring.
Although I am an active trader, I have always taken a broad perspective when
approaching the markets. I respect the Big Picture and attempt to place each
piece of information within its appropriate context and timeframe. I have found
that without this approach, there is very little understanding of ones expectations
in the market and an endless potential for risk.
I am not a stock picker - but trade the broader market itself in varying timeframes.
I want to know which way the prevailing wind is blowing, where the doldrums
can be expected and where the shoals will likely rise. I will not claim to
know which vessel is the fastest or most comfortable for passage - but I can
read the charts and know the risks.
I am not a salesperson for the market and its many wares. I observe it, contextualize
its moving parts - both visible and discrete - and interpret.
I practice Market Anthropology - Welcome to my notes.
Erik Swarts is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances
should any content be used or interpreted as a recommendation for any investment,
trade or approach to the markets. Trading and investing can be hazardous to
your wealth. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader
or by his or her registered investment advisor. This is strictly for educational
and informational purposes only. All opinions expressed by Mr. Swarts are subject
to change without notice, and the reader should always obtain current information
and perform their own due diligence before making any investment or trading
decision.
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