Daily Analysis

By: TheWaveTrading | Wed, Dec 14, 2011
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Today I will not spend too many words in this post since you already know my view.

What is needed is a statement from price.

SPX has reached a critical crossroad:

If the Zig Zag off the October 4 low is the correct count, which implies that price is establishing the bottom of the wave (2) of (C) then we should not give much more leeway to the down side.

I have the 1215 as the line in the sand.

An eod print below 1215 will mean that both the 50d and 20d are above and this is not what you would expect for an immediate bullish resolution.


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This option needs an immediate bottom also because the RSI has breached the 50 line and with more downside pressure the MACD would most likely trigger a bearish cross.


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And it is also worthwhile to monitor the McClellan oscillator. It is approaching the 60 line without a daily positive divergence so far.

The short term EW pattern can be considered completed at yesterday's lod with a potential Triple ZZ.

As it can be seen in the 15 min chart below it is a MUST to recover above 1237.17 in order to prevent an impulsive down leg off 1249.86

If the push to the upside is not impulsive or it fails below 1237.17 then the R/R will be favouring the bearish side.


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If today's price action confirms the bottom then the most likely scenario will be the impulsive wave (3) of (C) up.

In addition price would have shaped a bullish Inverted H&S


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If this bullish setup fails then I will switch on the Triangle option.

This pattern will most likely delay the Santa rally until the beginning of January.


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With FOMC out of the way now price will be affected by quarterly OPEX on Friday.

 


 

TheWaveTrading

Author: TheWaveTrading

TheWaveTrading

Contact: If you would like to contact the author, you can e-mail him at thewavetrading@gmail.com

The main objective of this project is to share my views on several markets and asset classes.

In the initial stage TWT website will be a free service.

My main focus will be the equity market with SPX being the leader but I will also follow US equity sectors, major European indices, fixed income, currencies and commodities markets.

My analysis is based upon traditional Technical Analysis, Elliot Wave guidelines and investor sentiment.

My goal is to establish the most likely path that the price of a particular asset will undertake and profit through ETF instruments both on the long and short side and mainly with leveraged ones (2 x & 3 x).

The advantage of ETF investments is that it allows getting involved in equity indices & sectors, currencies, fixed income, commodities etc.

Therefore the main purpose of TWT will be to establish investment strategies regardless if the market is in an up trend or in a down trend, leveraging the chosen scenario while managing the risk by establishing protective stop losses.

Hence I will always define the risk, I will try to let winners run the wave and I will cut the losses if my strategy is wrong.

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