Daily Analysis

By: TheWaveTrading | Thu, Dec 15, 2011
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The main idea I am involved with remains the same.

Its "fulcrum" is the structure of the pullback from the October's peak, which is strongly suggesting that the EW pattern off the October 4 low is not completed yet.

I have been proposing 2 potential EW candidates:

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This scenario is getting "weaker" not because of the retracement reached since a wave (2) can, without issuing technical problems, reach the 0.618 retr., rather the issue is that price now has both the 20d & 50d MA above and at the same time daily momentum has been damaged by the RSI below the 50 line & by the MACD bearish signal cross.

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With this week selling pressure, though, we now have the McClellan Oscillator reaching the oversold 60 line.

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A wave (C) could belong to a ZZ, therefore I am suggesting that at least a rebound should be expected very soon.

If price is able to recover above the 50 dsma then this option will be revitalize.

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In the weekly chart below we can see that last week's Spinning Top has been accurate.

In the mean time price has reached an important support range = 1209 - 1204

In order to switch to a bullish weekly hammer price needs to recover the 1230 area by eod tomorrow.

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Regarding NDX it is all about 2 gaps: above 2268.37; below 2211.39

While my idea remains the same:

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The EUR is the one to blame. Here given the complex overlapping structure of the selloff I prefer to rely on my larger "map", which calls for a wave (a) within a large DZZ that began at April 2010 top. I am expecting that in the range 1.2966-1.2870 price should attempt a bottom.

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Contrarian Indicator: Bund

If the count that I am working with is correct price should be on the verge of a reversal:

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To sum up: Despite having established the line in the sand at 1215, honestly I have not given up the ZigZag option but price has to make a bullish statement today.




Author: TheWaveTrading


Contact: If you would like to contact the author, you can e-mail him at thewavetrading@gmail.com

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