At Resistance

By: Stock Barometer | Fri, Jan 6, 2012
Print Email

1/6/2012 9:09:46 AM

The longer we stay up here, the more likely we are to break out...

But the key to that will be today... In the very short term, sure, we are overbought, binds are bouncing, and the dollar is bouncing in the premarket - all this is bearish for the open, but things can change quickly here. I'm still bullish, but cautious that we may see a short term reversal into our 1/12 date. The bulllish side of that is that it would set up an even larger move into the end of January.

If you're not a member of our free weekly mailing list, feel free to sign up by clicking here.

Here's a look at the global markets:

Global Markets

On the economic front, here is the schedule for this week. Pay close attention to the timing of the report and the potential for the markets to make short term reversals at those points.

Economic Calendar

On to the charts:

Daily Stock Barometer


Stock Barometer Analysis

The barometer remains in Buy Mode. I still see a continuation of the move higher into early to mid January. The effiiency of that move will determine when the top will be set.

The Stock Barometer is my proprietary market timing system. The direction, slope and level of the Stock Barometer determine our outlook. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are in Sell Mode. A Buy or Sell Signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction. Trend and support can override the barometer signals.


Money Management & Stops

To trade this system, there are a few things you need to know and address to control your risk:
• This system targets intermediate term moves, of which even in the best years, there are usually only up to 7 profitable intermediate term moves. The rest of the year will be consolidating moves where this system will experience small losses and gains that offset each other.
• This system will usually result in losing trades more than 50% of the time, even in our best years. The key is being positioned properly for longer term moves when they come.
• Therefore it is vitally important that you apply some form of money management to protect your capital.
• Trading a leveraged index fund will result in more risk, since you cannot set stops and you cannot get out intraday.

Accordingly;
• Make sure you set your stops so that you can lose no more than 2% per trade (based on the QQQQ if you're trading leveraged funds and options with our trading service).


Potential Cycle Reversal Dates

2012 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/12, 1/27, 2/16. We publish dates up to 2 months in advance.

I am bullish into 1/12 due to seasonal factors and the January Effect. What would be ideal is a market that peaks into 1/12, then turns lower into the 26th. I'd like to grab both those moves.

My Additional timing work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the above potential reversal dates. These are not to be confused with the barometer signals or cycle times. However, due to their past accuracy I post the dates here.

2011 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/15, 1/29, 2/16, 3/10, 3/18, 4/6, 5/21, 5/31, 6/13, 6/24, 7/16, 8/1, 8/19, 9/4, 9/25, 10/21, 10/25, 11/25, 12/26.2010 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/19, 1/28, 3/2, 3/23, 4/7, 5/30, 6/10, 6/28, 7/10, 8/13, 9/7, 10/2, 10/27, 11/21, 12/19. 2009 Published Reversal Dates: 1/20, 2/11, 3/7, 3/15, 4/8, 4/16, 4/27, 5/7, 6/8, 7/2, 7/17, 9/14, 10/10, 10/24, 11/12, 11/30, 12/9, 12/21, 12/29. 2008 Potential Reversal Dates: 12/31, 1/11, 2/1, 2/13, 3/6, 4/5, 4/22, 5/23, 6/6, 6/27, 7/13, 9/2, 10/3, 10/22, 11/10, 12/11. 2007 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/10, 1/14, 1/27, 1/31, 2/3, 2/17, 3/10, 3/24, 4/21, 5/6, 6/15, 8/29, 10/19, 11/29, 12/13, 12/23, 12/31, 1/11/08. 2006 potential reversal dates: 1/16, 1/30, 2/25, 3/19, 4/8, 5/8, 5/19, 6/6(20), 7/24, 8/20, 8/29, 9/15, 10/11, 11/28. 2005 Potential reversal dates: 12/27, 1/25, 2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12, 8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20, 12/16.


Timing Indicators

Use the following Timing/momentum indicators to assist in your trading of the QQQQ, GLD, USD, USO and TLT. They are tuned to deliver signals in line with the Stock Barometer and we use them only in determining our overall outlook for the market and for pinpointing market reversals. The level, direction, and position to the zero line are keys in these indicators. For example, direction determines mode and a buy signal 'above zero' is more bullish than a buy signal 'below zero'.

QQQQ Timing Indicator (NASDAQ:QQQQ)

QQQQ Timing Indicator

The QQQQ Spread Indicator will yield its own buy and sell signals that may be different from the Stock Barometer. It's meant to give us an idea of the next turn in the market.

Gold Timing Indicator (AMEX:GLD)

Gold Timing Indicator

Want to trade Gold? Use our signals with the Gold ETF AMEX:GLD. Gold gives us a general gage to the overall health of the US Economy and the markets.

US Dollar Index Timing Indicator (INDEX:DXY)

US Dollar Timing Indicator

Want to trade the US Dollar? Use our signals with the Power Shares AMEX:UUP: US Dollar Index Bullish Fund and AMEX:UDN: US Dollar Index Bearish Fund.

Bonds Timing Indicator (AMEX:TLT)

Bond Timing Indicator

Want to trade Bonds? Use our signals with Lehman?s 20 year ETF AMEX:TLT. The direction of bonds has an impact on the stock market. Normally, as bonds go down, stocks will go up and as bonds go up, stocks will go down.

OIL Timing Indicator (AMEX:USO)

Oil Timing Indicator

Want to trade OIL? Use our signals with AMEX:USO, the OIL ETF. We look at the price of oil as its level and direction has an impact on the stock market.


Secondary Stock Market Timing Indicator

% Buls minus % Bears

We daily monitor hundreds of popular and proprietary technical indicators that break down market internals, sentiment and money flow to give us unique insight into the market. We feature at least one here each day in support of our current outlook.

As an annual subscriber to any of our premium services, you also get access to all our charts and research. Email Carl@stockbarometer.com to upgrade and also save 20% on your subscription.


Daily Stock Market Outlook

We remain in Buy Mode, looking for the markets to move higher into January 12th. The next dates after that take us into expiration.

The above chart shows the AAII investor Sentiment Data. They had Mark Hulbert on CNBC this am talking about the complacency in the market. My only issue with Mark is that he won't add my service to his monitoring. I've only been doing this (on this site) since 2004, so I guess I'm a newbie... Sorry for the vent. You would think after publishing 8,000 articles, and almost 20,000 images, over the past decade, that he might give me a little more respect...

As for Jobs, again I'm not a big news guy, what's important is how people bet their money, and we'll see a day of that today and have a more clear view of next week. I think the markets can break out here and set new highs next week before consolidating. That would be ideal.

If you want to learn more about some of these indicators, I use my blog to cover them in more detail.

If you're looking for more information, please visit our blog - I'll have updates and publish other articles there. http://investmentresearchgroup.com/Blog/

Regards,

 


 

Stock Barometer

Author: Stock Barometer

www.stockbarometer.com

Stock Barometer is completely independent. We have never and will not ever accept compensation from any company whose stock we recommend.

Our goal is to make you money. We offer you the tools and information to do so and leave it to you, the individual investor, to apply them in the best way possible.

Important Disclosure: Futures, Options, Mutual Fund, ETF and Equity trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy/sell Futures, Options, Mutual Funds or Equities. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this Web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Performance results are hypothetical. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as a lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

Investment Research Group and all individuals affiliated with Investment Research Group assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results.

Investment Research Group (IRG), as a publisher of a financial newsletter of general and regular circulation, cannot tender individual investment advice. Only a registered broker or investment adviser may advise you individually on the suitability and performance of your portfolio or specific investments.

In making any investment decision, you will rely solely on your own review and examination of the fact and records relating to such investments. Past performance of our recommendations is not an indication of future performance. The publisher shall have no liability of whatever nature in respect of any claims, damages, loss, or expense arising out of or in connection with the reliance by you on the contents of our Web site, any promotion, published material, alert, or update.

For a complete understanding of the risks associated with trading, see our Risk Disclosure.

Copyright © 2004-2014 Investment Research Group, Inc.
d/b/a www.Stockbarometer.com. All Rights Reserved.

All Images, XHTML Renderings, and Source Code Copyright © Safehaven.com

SEARCH





TRUE MONEY SUPPLY

Source: The Contrarian Take http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
austrian-money-supply/