Yields/Cycles/Sentiment Say Gains May Not Last
Numerous markets and time frames still point to lower lows in stocks later in 2012. We believe the S&P 500 could push above 1,285 toward the 1,300 - 1,343 range. However, that move may be retraced fairly quickly, based on DeMark counts, increasing bullish sentiment, and still-elevated Italian bond yields. The negative implications of a 10-year Italian bond yielding 7% were outlined at the 00:29 and 13:00 marks of a December 18 video.
UBS created an interesting chart using the Juglar cycle, Kitchin cycle, and Dow Jones Industrial Average. According to Wikipedia:
The Kitchin cycle is a short business cycle of about 40 months discovered in the 1920s by Joseph Kitchin. The Juglar cycle is a fixed investment cycle of 7 to 11 years identified in 1862 by Clement Juglar.
Investors tend to get overly bullish near market tops and overly pessimistic near market bottoms. The latest AAII sentiment survey aligns with the idea of a probable peak occurring between 1,285 and 1,340 on the S&P 500. Bearish sentiment fell to the lowest level in roughly a year. Bullish sentiment rose to the highest level since early February 11, 2011; the S&P 500 peaked a week later (see below).
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Author: Chris Ciovacco
Chris Ciovacco
Ciovacco Capital
Management
Chris Ciovacco is the Chief Investment Officer for Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC. More on the web at www.ciovaccocapital.com.
All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Investment recommendations may change and readers are urged to check with their investment counselors and tax advisors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. This memorandum is based on information available to the public. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete. This memorandum is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The price or value of the investments to which this report relates, either directly or indirectly, may fall or rise against the interest of investors. All prices and yields contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE.
Ciovacco Capital Management, LLC is an independent money management firm based in Atlanta, Georgia. CCM helps individual investors and businesses, large & small; achieve improved investment results via research and globally diversified investment portfolios. Since we are a fee-based firm, our only objective is to help you protect and grow your assets. Our long-term, theme-oriented, buy-and-hold approach allows for portfolio rebalancing from time to time to adjust to new opportunities or changing market conditions.
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