The State of the Trend

By: George Krum | Sun, Jan 8, 2012
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In this week's analysis, I'll look at the SP 500 trend within three different timeframes (daily, weekly and monthly), and in the process will focus on the dominant mean reversion cycle. The charts are pretty much self-explanatory, and I won't go into unnecessary detail.

The daily trend is up, but the mean reversion cycle has turned down:

The weekly trend and cycle are both pointing upwards:

While the monthly trend is up, the monthly mean reverting cycle is nearing its peak:

In summary, the trend in all three timeframes is pointing up. The monthly mean reversion cycle is supporting the upward trend in prices, and is so far dampening the short-term negative daily cycle effect. With the monthly cycle nearing its peak, however, this support may soon begin to wane.



George Krum

Author: George Krum

George Krum

George Krum is the author of the "CIT Dates" blog, and the following apps:

OddsTrader - combines the power of Hurst Channels with proper risk and position size management. For a web version see OT Signals below.

Gann 9 - the only financial app that allows users to effortlessly apply the legendary W.D. Gann's tools and methods for trading (including the Square of 9).

OT Trend - helps you quantify and forecast the seemingly random ebb and flow of stock, index or mutual fund movement.

OT Fibonacci - automates the process of applying Fibonacci numbers, ratios and time series to any security.

OT Seasonal - allows you to perform seasonal analysis on practically any security from around the world, and to build long-term forecasts and models.

OT Pairs - pairs trading, one of the most successful hedge fund trading strategies, is now available on your smart phone.

OT Pivots - combines the power of pivot lines with cycles to provide you with concise technical analysis and powerful trading signals.

OT Signals - a web app accessible from any browser, tablet or pc. It gives buy/sell/hold ratings for any instrument from around the world, and defines the trend and support/resistance levels.

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