Daily Technical Report
USD/CAD is weakening further from its triangle pattern ceiling, which coincided with an intraday DeMark™ exhaustion signal and daily bearish "evening star" candle pattern (see hourly/daily charts).
However, the chart structure remains positive and so we wait for a directional confirmation above 1.0425 before initiating a buy trade setup.
Until then, intraday traders might be attracted to an active "hit and run" short trade opportunity back into key support at 1.0080 (see hourly chart).
Meanwhile, the bulls need to push back above 1.0425 and 1.0524 (25 Nov swing high), in order to trigger a larger breakout from the rate’s multimonth triangle pattern.
In terms of the big picture, a directional confirmation above 1.0680 is still needed to unlock the recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the rate’s ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott wave cycle (see top chart insert).
EUR/CAD, which tends to share a positive correlation with EUR/USD, is temporarily unwinding from oversold conditions. However, the previous structural breach under the rate’s multi-month distribution pattern continues to favour downside pressure into 1.2760 (10th Jan 2010).